Conference USA couldn’t have planned its schedule any better, and it’s likely by accident. As the top four teams in the conference play each other, there’s a three-way tie for second and only one week to break it.
The Liberty Flames control their destiny, while the Sam Houston Bearkats need help. Which team puts itself in a position to potentially win the conference? Find out our thoughts on the spread, winner, and total in this Liberty vs. Sam Houston prediction.
Liberty vs. Sam Houston Betting Preview
All Liberty vs. Sam Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Liberty -1 - Spread
Liberty -3 - Moneyline
- Liberty -142, Sam Houston +120
- Over/Under
47.5 points - Game Time
3:30 ET - Location
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium | Huntsville, Tex. - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS Sports Network
Friday’s Liberty vs. Sam Houston game has more juice than many predicted before the season. Liberty was an overwhelming favorite to repeat as CUSA Champion, while Sam Houston won three games last season. But here they are, playing for a spot in the CUSA Championship Game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Liberty is a slight road favorite of just three points, while the total of 47.5 points tracks with Sam Houston’s tendency to play close, low-scoring games this year. The Bearkats need help to reach the championship game, where the Jacksonville State Gamecocks await one of three possible opponents.
Liberty’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM puts this closer to a toss-up than Liberty fans would like, giving the Flames a 51.2% chance to win against Sam Houston. If the Flames win, they’ll make the CUSA Championship Game against Jacksonville State next week.
- at Sam Houston: 51.2%
Sam Houston’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Bearkats have a 48.8% win probability. The Bearkats also need Jacksonville State to beat the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since Sam Houston lost to them in mid-October. FPM gives the Gamecocks a similar 48.8% chance to win on Saturday. Accordingly, the Bearkats have a 23.8% chance of making the CUSA Championship Game at the time of writing.
- vs. Liberty: 48.8%
Prediction for Liberty vs. Sam Houston
I did not have the Conference USA title race being one of the best in college football this season. But here we are, with a three-way tie for second place and the top four teams playing one another this weekend.
The roadmap is simply for Liberty: Win and the Flames are in. Sam Houston needs help. The Bearkats must win on Friday but also require a Western Kentucky loss on Saturday.
The Bearkats will go as quarterback Hunter Watson goes. He was having a sensational season before getting injured in that Western Kentucky game, and though he’s returned to the lineup, he hasn’t quite been himself.
Before the October 16 game, the Bearkats averaged 31.8 points per game. Since then, they’ve yet to reach 20 points in regulation.
Luckily, the defense has been sensational. Sam Houston has allowed 12 points a game and faces a Liberty offense that has been inconsistent down the stretch. The Flames have started moving the ball consistently on the ground against poor rushing defenses, but the passing game is still a question mark.
If the Bearkats want to win, they must muddy things up. If this turns into a track meet, Liberty will run away with it. But if the Bearkats can slow the pace and limit possessions, their odds of turning the game with a single explosive play go up substantially.
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Watson needs to be the hero on Friday. He typically struggles to find success as both a passer and a runner in the same game. Weirdly, he’s had either a 100-yard rushing or a 125-yard passing outing in nine of his ten games but has yet to hit triple-digits both on the ground and through the air in the same game.
If there’s a time to be an actual dual threat, it’s on Friday.
Ultimately, though, I trust Jamey Chadwell to have his team ready. It’s more likely that he can scheme up a score or two than it is that the Sam Houston offense returns to form at the perfect time.
The best play here is the under, as I don’t see these teams going back and forth enough to hit 48 points. I think Liberty should win and cover, but barely.
I feel much more confident in the offenses struggling to move the ball consistently on their way to a fun but low-scoring game.
Prediction: Liberty 20, Sam Houston 16
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