We’ve made it to Week 14 of the college football season and have little debate over the top of the table when it comes to our College Football Playoff Rankings. However, there’s plenty of debate about who should be in the at-large field.
With the committee releasing their top 25 following a disruptive Week 13, we can take a look at how the 12-team bracket would lay out if the season ended today. And with that, we can take a stab at the following College Football Playoff Predictions.
First Round College Football Playoff Predictions
- No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils
- No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers
- No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 10 SMU Mustangs
- No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers
With such a disruptive weekend just behind us, it should be no surprise that this at-large field looks significantly different from last week’s field. Last week’s field consisted of:
5: Indiana
6: Notre Dame
7: Alabama
8: Miami
9: Ole Miss
10: Georgia
11: Tennessee
12: Boise State
This time around, the teams that find themselves on the outside looking in are:
No. 25 Colorado Buffaloes
No. 24 Kansas State Wildcats
No. 23 Illinois Fighting Illini
No. 22 UNLV Rebels
No. 21 Missouri Tigers
No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies
No. 19 BYU Cougars
No. 18 Iowa State Cyclones
No. 17 Tulane Green Wave
No. 16 Arizona State Sun Devils
No. 15 South Carolina Gamecocks
No. 14 Ole Miss Rebels
No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide
No. 12 Clemson Tigers
Gone are Alabama and Ole Miss, but in the picture now are Clemson and SMU; of course, the Mustangs will be playing in the ACC Championship Game to seal their own fate. Clemson still has to beat South Carolina to secure its seat in what would have to be the top 11 unless they can sneak into the ACC Championship Game and in that.
Clemson is the last team out right now and Arizona State is projected to win the Big 12, thus giving them that No. 12 seed above the Tigers.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
But let’s get to why you’re here — predicting these games.
- Georgia vs. Tennessee: Georgia -6.5 (Bulldogs win 65.7%)
- Notre Dame vs. SMU: Notre Dame -6 (Irish win 65.1%)
- Penn State vs. Indiana: Penn State -3.5 (Nittany Lions win 61.1%)
- Ohio State vs. Arizona State: Ohio State -14 (Buckeyes win 85.9%)
Quarterfinal College Football Playoff Predictions
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 5 Ohio State
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Penn State
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 8 Georgia
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
So, these were unique matchups to predict. First off, the Rose Bowl sees No. 1 Oregon host who we project to be the No. 8 seed Georgia Bulldogs. Oregon is set to be a large favorite in their opening round of this playoff series as the top overall seed as we also project them to once again beat Ohio State to retain that No. 1 seed.
Back in New Orleans for a bowl, the Longhorns get redemption as the No. 2 seed in this scenario, facing off against the No. 7 Irish. Texas will be looking to avenge a semifinal exit against Washington a season ago.
Here’s where it go fun, though. Miami landed at the No. 3 seed with little surprise. The projected ACC champion would be the third-highest-ranked conference champion and earn the right to head to the Peach Bowl and ‘host’ the No. 6 seed Nittany Lions, winners of their opening round game.
But it’s the fourth seed that really interests everyone here. The Broncos from Boise State make what we can expect to be history as the first (and potentially only for some time) Group of Five school to earn a first-round bye. Technically, only time will tell if this is historic, but the way the playoffs are designed, this would have been historic as they likely could’ve earned themselves a spot even in the four-team era at this rate.
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As such, the Broncos play the No. 5 seed Ohio State Buckeyes. This is, of course, after they earn the first-round bye as the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion, despite finishing this week’s ranking as the 11th-ranked team.
Of note, the projected Big 12 Champion — Arizona State — was given only the No. 12 seed despite their overall ranking of just No. 16.
The winning probabilities for those games — if these were to be played right now — are:
- No. 4 Boise State vs. No. 5 Ohio State: Ohio State -18 (Buckeyes win 91.7%)
- No. 3 Miami vs. No. 6 Penn State: Penn State -1.5 (Nittany Lions win 52.5%)
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Georgia: Oregon -5.5 (Ducks win 65.7%)
- No. 2 Texas vs. No. 7 Notre Dame: Texas -7 (Longhorns win 68.8%)
Semifinal College Football Playoff Predictions
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Ohio State
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 6 Penn State
And with those results in, our semifinals are a pairing of the top-ranked teams as they stand right now in your normal AP or coaches polls.
- No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Ohio State: Texas -1.5 (Longhorns win 51.8%)
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 6 Penn State: Oregon -8 (Ducks win 73.8%)
College Football Playoff Predictions | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Texas
It shouldn’t be a surprise that the top-ranked teams find their ways here, though they both would’ve taken different roads with Texas getting past Ohio State and Oregon getting through Penn State.
Our National Championship Prediction in this scenario would be:
Oregon -3.5, with the Ducks winning 61.1% of the time, crowning the Oregon Ducks as the winner of the College Football Playoff Predictions ahead of Week 14.
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