This week is a time to be thankful, and there’s nothing we’re more thankful for right now than the Black Friday matchup between the Miami (OH) RedHawks and Bowling Green Falcons. Two of the best in the Mid-American Conference go head-to-head, with the winner headed to the MAC Championship Game.
Who will prevail? Our Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Betting Preview
All Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Bowling Green -2.5 - Spread
Bowling Green -2.5 - Moneyline
Bowling Green -135, Miami (OH) +114 - Over/Under
42 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Doyt L. Perry Stadium | Bowling Green, OH - Predicted Weather at Kick
32 degrees, windy with a few snow flurries, 16 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPNU
Friday sees the 78th edition of the Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green matchup, and the stakes have never been higher. The RedHawks won the last time the two teams met (2023) and hold a substantial 47-25-5 advantage over their in-state MAC rival. They’re also on a six-game win streak this year. However, the Falcons enter the game as a slender favorite by the oddsmakers.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The CFN FPM concurs with the oddsmakers, with both offering a spread of 2.5 in favor of Bowling Green. The RedHawks are 0-4 outright when entering the game as an underdog and have covered the spread just once in that situation (against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish). The Falcons are 5-2 as an outright favorite, but 3-5 ATS. They are 3-1 ATS in their last four games, however.
Miami (OH)’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Miami (OH) has a 46.2% chance of beating Bowling Green on Friday afternoon. Our metric projected a 10-2 record for the RedHawks in 2024, but sit at 7-4 ahead of this pivotal MAC matchup. Miami’s out-of-conference schedule got them off to a slow start, and the CFN FPM also projected a win against the Toledo Rockets that ended up as a 20-30 loss.
Bowling Green’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Bowling Green has a 53.8% chance of beating Miami (OH) on Friday afternoon. Our metric projected the Falcons to have a 10-2 record in the 2024 season, forecasting two losses (to the Penn State Nittany Lions and Texas A&M Aggies). However, they dropped two games against expectations (Old Dominion Monarchs and Northern Illinois Huskies) to sit 7-4.
Prediction for Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green
Buckle up for a Black Friday battle as the RedHawks and Falcons face off for a place in the MAC Championship Game. While several scenarios exist for these teams, the most simple one is this: win and in. Bowling Green is aiming to secure a seat at the top table for the first time since 2015, having appeared in three consecutive title games from 2013-2015.
Standing in the way of the Falcons is a Miami (OH) team looking to become the first team to defend the MAC title since the 2011-2012 Northern Illinois teams. Both teams are on a hot streak, with the Redhawks winning six on the bounce and the Falcons riding a five-game win streak. So, who holds the advantage, where will the critical battles unfold, and who goes to Detroit?
It’s going to be cold. It’s going to be windy. It’s going to be (possibly) snowy. Or, as it’s more commonly known, quintessential MACtion. There isn’t a more fitting environment to decide the MAC Championship Game protagonists, and it could play a significant role in deciding how this Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green matchup plays out.
When the wind whips through Doyt L. Perry, you’re going to want a tough ground game to carry you to victory. Thankfully for both teams, they’re decently equipped in that regard. Behind running back Keyon Mozee, the RedHawks are averaging the fourth-most rushing yards per carry (4.55) in the MAC.
Meanwhile, Bowling Green averages 152.82 rushing yards per game. They also rank fourth in the MAC for rushing touchdowns, finding the end zone 20 times on the ground this year. They have a double-headed monster in the backfield, with Terion Stewart leading the way with 856 rushing yards and Jaison Patterson throwing another 397 yards and four touchdowns into the pot.
Offensively, Bowling Green has averaged 4.2 points per game more than Miami (OH) this season, aided by the top tight end in the country, Harold Fannin Jr. There’s a doubt over his availability for Friday’s game, which could impact the result, with his ability as a blocker likely to be missed more than his receiving capability in this weather-impacted game.
Defense will be critical when it’s cold, wet, windy, and a title spot is on the line. At first glance, Miami (OH)’s 13th-ranked scoring defense appears to hold the upper hand here. Matthew Salopek is an all-round enforcer, Brian Ugwu has made a living in opposition backfields, and Raion Strader leads the nation in passes defended, resulting in just 17.8 points per game allowed.
However, in a game expected to feature a ton of ground and pound, red zone defense could be crucial, and here, Bowling Green has the upper hand. The Falcons have allowed a touchdown on just 45.16% of opposition red zone trips, whereas Miami (OH) has allowed a touchdown on 58.62%.
The Falcons have been more impressive on offense in the red zone too, while the RedHawks have floundered inside the final 20 yards, scoring a touchdown on just 41.67% of their red zone trips. Unless Gabbert and co. can remedy those ills, Bowling Green will be heading to Detroit for the MAC Championship Game. Miami (OH) will need to pray for Ohio and Buffalo losses.
Prediction: Miami (OH) 21, Bowling Green 23
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