Just a week ago, the Oklahoma Sooners looked dead in the water, but they have hope of a winning season after a dominant and surprising 24-3 win over the Alabama Crimson Tide. They’ll head to Death Valley for a huge game against the LSU Tigers as both teams seek positive momentum heading into the transfer portal season.
As is always the case, the crowd in Baton Rouge, La., will play a huge factor, but will Tigers fans focus their ire more on the Sooners or their own head coach? Find out our thoughts in this Oklahoma vs. LSU prediction.
Oklahoma vs. LSU Betting Preview
All Oklahoma vs. LSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
LSU -6.5 - Spread
LSU -6 - Moneyline
LSU -218, Oklahoma +180 - Over/Under
47 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 30, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Tiger Stadium | Baton Rouge, La. - Predicted Weather at Kick
54 degrees, partly cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Neither of these teams has met expectations this season, as Oklahoma looked lost from the start and LSU collapsed down the stretch. Accordingly, while they’ll each be disappointed with the season as a whole, these teams desperately want some positive momentum to end the regular season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The line is only six points here, and the total is indicative of two teams with serious issues on one side of the ball. A total of 47 points and a spread of six points in favor of the Tigers implies Vegas thinks LSU should win by a score close to 27-21.
Oklahoma’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is in line with the Vegas spread, as it has the Sooners as 6.5-point underdogs. That translates to a winning probability of about 32.3%. The Sooners would love to get to the end of the regular season on a two-game winning streak, but it will be difficult on the road.
- at LSU: 32.3%
LSU’s Winning Probability
LSU has a 67.7% chance to win at home, per FPM. The Tigers would move to 8-4, which still feels disappointing given their high preseason hopes but would be substantially better than the alternative. The Tigers need to keep positive momentum to hold together a strong recruiting class before the early signing period.
- vs. Oklahoma: 67.7%
Prediction for Oklahoma vs. LSU
The Oklahoma offense and the LSU defense have, for the most part, been just fine this season. Each team’s other unit has been a mess, though.
The Tigers appeared early on to have fixed some of last year’s defensive issues, but they’ve resurfaced lately, as LSU has allowed more than 25 points in four of its last six outings.
The offense hasn’t helped much, as that group has really struggled after halftime in the last month. Starting with the Texas A&M Aggies, the Tigers have scored 10 or fewer points in the second half of four straight games.
That’s made it difficult to shield a struggling defense, especially against the run.
But the Sooners have had their own issues. The passing offense is non-existent right now. Even in a blowout Alabama win, the Sooners threw for just 68 yards. The rushing attack has been much better recently, bolstered by Jackson Arnold’s willingness to run from the quarterback position.
Ultimately, the issue here is that Oklahoma’s offense is still a poor unit. Even against LSU’s porous rushing defense, can the Sooners get enough to outscore the Tigers? Even against Alabama, the Sooners only scored 17 offensive points, the defense just couldn’t be stopped, especially off the edge.
Now, they’ll face one of the best tackle duos in college football.
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That’s the matchup to watch. If Oklahoma’s defensive line can beat Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. off the edge and apply pressure to Garrett Nussmeier, the Sooners have a real chance to win outright. In a low-scoring game, the Sooners can grind it out in a run-first game script.
Ultimately though, I think the LSU passing attack can do just enough to score a few touchdowns and put the Sooners’ offense in a game where it’s forced to pass. If the Tigers score early, Arnold will be forced to push the ball down the field.
That won’t end well for Oklahoma, and while it might be close, I think the Tigers have this one at home.
Prediction: LSU 27, Oklahoma 17
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