The South Carolina Gamecocks and Clemson Tigers despise each other under any and all circumstances, including when both teams are down, with seemingly little to play for. But how much more does the Palmetto Bowl mean when the winner could vault itself into the College Football Playoff?
The teams are evenly matched, and the stage is set for the most important Palmetto Bowl in the history of the rivalry. Find out who we think wins in this South Carolina vs. Clemson prediction.
South Carolina vs. Clemson Betting Preview
All South Carolina vs. Clemson odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Clemson -1.5 - Spread
Clemson -2.5 - Moneyline
Clemson -135, South Carolina +114 - Over/Under
49 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 30, Noon ET - Location
Clemson Memorial Stadium | Clemson, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
47 degrees, sunny, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The stakes have never been higher in a game with high stakes. While this week’s College Football Playoff rankings are not yet out, South Carolina and Clemson will be in the top 15.
There’s a scenario in which the Tigers can win the ACC via a Miami Hurricanes loss, but the more viable path for each team is to beat the other and hope for one of any number of possible upsets to feel good about an at-large bid.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The spread and total tell the story. Clemson opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but that has since dropped to 2.5 points. The total of 49 implies a final score close to 26-23, in favor of the Tigers.
South Carolina’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM has finally caught up to the Gamecocks’ strength after undervaluing them all season. South Carolina has a 48.2% chance to win, per the metric, which makes them just 1.5-point underdogs. They might need some help elsewhere to get into the College Football Playoff with a win, but not much.
- at Clemson: 48.2%
Clemson’s Winning Probability
Clemson has a 51.8% chance to win at home, per FPM. Like the Gamecocks, a win would put the Tigers in prime position to move up in the College Football Playoff rankings and perhaps earn an at-large bid in the postseason.
- vs. South Carolina: 51.8%
Prediction for South Carolina vs. Clemson
This is the most impactful Palmetto Bowl ever. That’s neither an overstatement nor hyperbole.
Sure, the teams have met while each enjoying successful years before. There have even been top-10 matchups before, something this won’t be. Just two years ago, South Carolina stunned a top-10 Tigers team that had CFP hopes. But this is the first year the teams have met with the postseason on the line.
A loss eliminates South Carolina from the CFP. Unless the Syracuse Orange beat Miami, allowing the Tigers to backdoor their way into the ACC Championship Game, a loss eliminates Clemson from the CFP as well.
I’ve had an excellent read on the Gamecocks all season. Back in Week 3, I suggested that a controversial loss to the LSU Tigers could be the difference between South Carolina (who had a preseason Vegas win total of 5.5) making or missing the College Football Playoff.
Clemson has had the easier road, beating just two bowl-eligible teams this season. A win over South Carolina would give the Tigers the signature win they need to bolster their résumé.
The key for both teams is pressure and quarterback play.
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There might not be a hotter quarterback in college football right now than LaNorris Sellers, especially against the blitz. In his last five games, Sellers is 40 of 56 against the blitz, with 725 yards, nine touchdowns, a sack, and an interception. He also has a 61% first-down rate against the blitz since Week 8.
When Sellers is on, he’s Superman. And no one in college football seems to be playing as well as the Gamecocks have during the latter half of the season.
But South Carolina is banged up, and Clemson is equally impressive. Cade Klubnik has played like a top-10 quarterback this year and has especially impressed with his legs. He’ll need to be agile against a formidable South Carolina pass rush that ranks among the country’s best in several categories.
That’s the difference here, in my opinion. The Tigers’ pass rush is solid but has disappeared in big games this year, with just one total sack in the two losses. The Louisville Cardinals and Georgia Bulldogs imposed their will on the Tigers and wore them down.
I think South Carolina’s run game, led by Raheim Sanders, should be able to do the same if the tight ends are healthy.
If Sellers plays the way he has and the defense bounces back after an uncharacteristically poor outing against the Missouri Tigers, I like the Gamecocks to put pressure on the committee.
I like the Gamecocks in a crazy game that hits the over, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see any outcome here. Take the Gamecocks and sprinkle the over as South Carolina does its best to put pressure on the College Football Playoff Committee.
Prediction: South Carolina 27, Clemson 26
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