It’s a convoluted mess atop the Big 12 Football Standings entering Week 14. The final week of the regular season will ultimately bring us clarity as to who will represent the conference in the Big 12 Championship Game, but it may not be as clear when the results go final.
With the Big 12 tiebreaking scenarios at hand, let’s outline exactly what happens with each result for the competing four teams in contention.
What Happens If Colorado Beats Oklahoma State?
We’ll break down what happens to each team in these results as simple as we can. But if Colorado beats Oklahoma State on Friday afternoon, they simply stay alive.
The Buffaloes have some help they need across the board from the other contenders, but it’s a much easier ride if they beat the Cowboys.
What Happens If Oklahoma State Beats Colorado?
If Oklahoma State wins their first Big 12 game (and only) of the year against Colorado, the Buffaloes aren’t quite eliminated from contention. They can still make the Big 12 Championship Game if they lose to Oklahoma State with the following results:
- Colorado loss + Iowa State win + Arizona State win
- Colorado loss + Iowa State win + BYU win
- Colorado loss + Arizona State win + BYU win
What Happens If Baylor Beats Kansas?
If the Baylor Bears beat the Kansas Jayhawks and some chaos ensues across the board, the Bears can make the Big 12 Championship Game. It’s an absolute long shot, but like others in this group, if Baylor beats Kansas, they’re still alive.
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Baylor would need to win avoid all of the following:
- Iowa State win + Arizona State win
- Iowa State win + BYU win
- Iowa State win + Colorado win
- Arizona State win + BYU win
- Arizona State win + Colorado win
- BYU win + Colorado win
What we’re getting at here is the fact that Baylor needs Iowa State, Arizona State, and Colorado to lose in order for them to even have a shot.
What Happens If Kansas Beats Baylor?
If Kansas beats Baylor, however, the Bears are eliminated. Still, the fact that we’re talking about the Bears as a potential dark horse to make the Big 12 Championship speaks volumes to the turnaround we saw happen in front of our eyes this season.
It wasn’t too long ago that some were calling for head coach Dave Aranda to be fired. Now, a few wins later, the Bears are potentially in contention for the Big 12 but certainly going bowling.
What Happens If Texas Tech Beats West Virginia?
If the Texas Tech Red Raiders beat the West Virginia Mountaineers, a string of events happens. First up, WVU would be eliminated. The Mountaineers need to win to keep their incredibly thin chances alive. And the same needs to be said for the Red Raiders.
The loser of this game is eliminated. However, if Texas Tech wins, they need to avoid the following events:
- Iowa State win + Arizona State win
- Iowa State win + BYU win
- Iowa State win + Colorado win
- Arizona State win + BYU win
- Arizona State win + Colorado win
- BYU win + Colorado win
Like Baylor above them here, Texas Tech needs the three teams ahead of them to basically all lose, but can still potentially force the tiebreaking chaos if any of those two results don’t happen.
What Happens If West Virginia Beats Texas Tech?
If West Virginia beats Texas Tech, the Red Raiders are eliminated from the Big 12 Championship Game. But if the Mountaineers win, they’re still alive, just like TTU is above.
In order to make the Big 12 Championship Game tiebreaking scenarios, WVU would need to avoid the following events:
- Iowa State win + Arizona State win
- Iowa State win + BYU win
- Iowa State win + Colorado win
- Arizona State win + BYU win
- Arizona State win + Colorado win
- BYU win + Colorado win
What Happens If Arizona Beats Arizona State?
With Arizona State as close to being in the driver’s seat as any one team, the Sun Devils are all but in with a win. Yet, it’s not that simple. Starting with their game, if Arizona were to beat Arizona State, the Sun Devils could make it in.
But here’s how the road map would have to work if Arizona State were to lose. They would be eliminated if ASU loses the game against Arizona and the following events happen:
- Arizona State loss + Iowa State win + BYU win
- Arizona State loss + Iowa State win + Colorado win
- Arizona State loss + BYU win + Colorado win
What Happens If Arizona State Beats Arizona?
If Arizona State wins, they’re all but in. They need to win to stay alive and they would come out on top of the tiebreaking scenarios against the other three teams they enter the week tied with.
- If Arizona State wins and Colorado wins + BYU & Iowa State lose, it’s Sun Devils vs. Buffaloes
- If Arizona State wins and Iowa State wins + BYU &Colorado lose, it’s Sun Devils vs. Cyclones
- If Arizona State wins and BYU wins + Colorado & Iowa State lose, it’s Sun Devils vs. Cougars
- If Arizona State wins and BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State win, it’s Sun Devils vs. Cyclones
What Happens If Iowa State Beats Kansas State?
If Iowa State defeats Kansas State, the Cyclones are in the Big 12 Championship Game. That’s because they own the tiebreaking scenarios over BYU and Colorado, but not Arizona State. With the four teams tied, Iowa State will earn the second-place finish against all four, or the first-place finish if it’s just tied with BYU and/or Colorado.
What Happens If Kansas State Beats Iowa State?
If the Wildcats do beat Iowa State in Farmageddeon, then the Cyclones aren’t quite eliminated. In fact, they have to have one of the following set of events happen to be officially eliminated:
- Iowa State loss + Arizona State & BYU win
- Iowa State loss + Arizona State win & Colorado win
- Iowa State loss + BYU win & Colorado win
If any combination of two of the three tied teams win and Iowa State loses, the Cyclones would be eliminated.
What Happens If BYU Beats Houston?
With this game being the latest kick of the weekend in the Big 12, the BYU Cougars will know their fortune one way or another. Mathametically, they could even be eliminated before kickoff but hoping to potentially still make the College Football Playoffs.
If BYU beats Houston, they are still in contention and at the very worst, tied for first place.
What Happens If Houston Beats BYU?
If the Cougars beat the Cougars .. scratch that, reverse it .. if the Cougars lost to the Cougars .. wait — if Houston beats BYU, then BYU is all but eliminated unless they have other events transpire in the previous games.
BYU would be eliminated if they lose and:
- Iowa State & Arizona State win
- Iowa State & Colorado win
- Arizona State & Colorado win
The Cougar Bowl will ultimately determine the results of the Big 12 Championship Game or have no bearing whatsoever if enough teams have dropped.
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