The Kent State Golden Flashes and Buffalo Bulls bring two very different regular seasons to a close on Tuesday night, as the final edition of midweek MACtion for the 2024 college football campaign comes to the state of New York. One team is looking to cap off a season that has defied expectations, the other just desperately needs a win to avoid going winless for the year.
Who will prevail? Our Kent State vs. Buffalo prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Kent State vs. Buffalo Betting Preview
All Kent State vs. Buffalo odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Buffalo -15 - Spread
Buffalo -21 - Moneyline
Buffalo -1350, Kent State +800 - Over/Under
49 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
UB Stadium | Buffalo, NY - Predicted Weather at Kick
32 degrees, partly cloudy and breezy, 15 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN+
Tuesday night marks the 30th edition of this Kent State vs. Buffalo matchup. They’re closely separated in the head-to-head record, with the Bulls’ win a year ago edging them ahead, 15-14 all-time. Don’t expect Tuesday’s game to resemble anything as close to their historical record, as Buffalo is a massive favorite for the game — and with just reason, given the trajectory of the two.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Betting the Buffalo moneyline won’t turn your hard-earned dollars into riches, but is there any value in the spread or points totals? Kent State has covered the spread just three times this season, while Buffalo is 3-1 ATS as a favorite. They’re also 2-1 ATS in their last three. The last seven Bulls’ games have gone over the points total, and they may hit the 49 line on their own.
Kent State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Kent State has a 12.6% chance of beating Buffalo on Tuesday night. Our metric has actually given the Golden Flashes too much credit this season, projecting a 1-11 season when they will end the year with a 0-12 overall record that includes a 0-8 MAC campaign if they lose to the Bulls. It will be their first winless season since 1998 if they fall on Tuesday.
Buffalo’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Buffalo has an 87.4% chance of defeating Kent State in their season finale on Tuesday night. Our metric predicted a 9-3 season for Pete Lembo’s team, and if they beat the Golden Flashes, they will end the year 8-4 with a 6-2 MAC campaign. They had already secured bowl eligibility earlier in the year, returning to the postseason after a year’s absence in 2023.
Prediction for Kent State vs. Buffalo
There were some elements of the media (and fan base) who weren’t bowled over when Buffalo hired special teams savant Lembo to replace the Alabama Crimson Tide-bound Maurice Linquist. Yet, months later, he’s guided the program back to the postseason and kept them in the thick of the MAC Championship Game hunt.
Tuesday night allows Lembo and his team the opportunity to hit eight wins for the first time since 2019. The only thing standing in their way is a Kent State team without a win and a head coach who is under pressure for his on-field performances and his off-field financial malpractice. So, who holds the advantage, and where will the critical battles unfold?
Buffalo holds the advantage. This isn’t rocket science, sadly. Kent State hasn’t been able to score and hasn’t been able to stop teams scoring on their way to their 0-11 record. The program ranks 133rd in the country with 14.5 points per game, and sits plum last for scoring defense, giving up 44.2 points per game.
The Golden Flashes’ early season schedule, featuring a raft of Power Five programs, including two College Football Playoff contenders, didn’t help, but the defensive bleeding continued into MAC play. Their rushing defense has been particularly bad, so watch for Buffalo running back Al-Jay Henderson to bolster his 774 rushing yards (976 scrimmage) and eight total touchdowns.
Quarterback CJ Ogbonna has also come alive in recent weeks, throwing for three scores in each of the Bulls’ last two games while showcasing his dual-threat ability with three in the last three. The Golden Flashes defense simply isn’t equipped to handle any offense, especially one that has been at the top of its game as the calendar has turned to November.
Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been the best unit in the MAC this year, but it’s not been far off. They’ve been led by linebacker Shaun Dolac, who’s been a force at turning the ball over. They lead the conference in turnover margin per game, whereas Kent State has been good for almost two turnovers a game. It’s difficult to see a world where these teams compete on the same level in Week 14.
Prediction: Kent State 17, Buffalo 40
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