While, on the surface, The Game doesn’t have its typical hype of both teams being ranked, I’d argue that this year’s Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines game is as important as ever.
Can Ohio State get the monkey off its back? And if not, what’s next? Find out our thoughts on the spread, total, and potential fallout in this Michigan vs. Ohio State prediction.
Michigan vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Michigan vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -17.5 - Spread
Ohio State -20.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -1800, Michigan +1000 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 29, Noon ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
31 degrees, cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
I don’t have to tell you about how these teams are moving in opposite directions. Ohio State is pretty much a lock for the College Football Playoff and will play the Oregon Ducks in the Big Ten title game — as long as they beat Michigan. Michigan is trying to continue its winning streak over the Buckeyes and finish with a winning record.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The spread and total are a direct indictment on the Michigan offense, however, as Vegas expects both a blowout and a low-scoring Wolverines outing. The implied final score is close to 32-12, in favor of the Buckeyes.
Michigan’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM doesn’t give the visiting Wolverines much of a chance in this one, just an 8.9% win probability. However, a win would mean the Wolverines would extend their three-game winning streak over the Buckeyes.
- at Ohio State: 91.1%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Buckeyes are heavy favorites, with a 91.1% win probability. The Buckeyes would then head to Indianapolis for a rematch with Oregon for a first-round bye and potential top-end seed in the College Football Playoff.
- vs. Michigan: 91.1%
Prediction for Michigan vs. Ohio State
Spoiler alert: I think Ohio State takes three years’ worth of frustration out on the Wolverines in a beatdown that easily covers the spread, finally gaining revenge after three straight brutal losses to the Wolverines.
But what if the Buckeyes lose?
It’s The Game after all, and we’ve seen surprising upsets.
An unranked Michigan team blanked No. 5 Ohio State, 28-0, in 1993. Between 2001 and 2004, unranked Ohio State upset top-12 Michigan teams twice, including a 37-20 blowout in 2004. Michigan has been an underdog in all three of the wins during this streak.
It’s possible.
A Michigan win would send shockwaves through the college football world. The Indiana Hoosiers and Penn State Nittany Lions would face several lengthy tie-breakers for the right to play Oregon, Michigan fans would feel like the entirety of the 2024 calendar year was a success, and Ohio State fans would apply enough pressure to make Ryan Day’s seat very, very hot.
It would be one of the most consequential upsets of the modern college football era.
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In all likelihood, that won’t happen.
We know what this Michigan team is. The Wolverines have the talent in the trenches to bully less physically talented teams at the point of attack. They can hold up against average and even slightly above-average teams because they can win enough at the line of scrimmage to make teams nervous.
The Wolverines bullied Northwestern; they bullied Michigan State; they even held up against Indiana. But they should not be able to impose their will in the running game against an elite Ohio State front.
Sure, the defense can get some pressure, but the offense can’t score if it can’t move bodies in the power-running game.
Ohio State might take some time to find an offensive rhythm; we saw that against Indiana. But the Buckeyes’ defense held the Hoosiers to 150 yards of offense, and it would not surprise me at all to see the Wolverines fail to reach that.
If it looks close early, Ohio State fans shouldn’t fret. And when the Buckeyes start to pull away, don’t be surprised if they continue to keep their foot on the gas.
Much like Bowser in Mario Kart, it might take the Buckeyes some time to get going, but once up to full speed, they won’t slow down. Unfortunately for the over bettors, I’m not sure they’ll get much help from the Wolverines.
Prediction: Ohio State 37, Michigan 7
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