The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have played spoiler multiple times this season, but can they pull off one more stunner? The Georgia Bulldogs and their College Football Playoff hopes ride on protecting their home field and avoiding the upset.
Which team wins? Can the Yellow Jackets make it a game? Find out in this Georgia Tech vs. Georgia prediction.
Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Betting Preview
All Georgia Tech vs. Georgia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia -15 - Spread
Georgia -19 - Moneyline
Georgia -1450, Georgia Tech +810 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
Friday, Nov. 29, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Sanford Stadium | Athens, Ga. - Predicted Weather at Kick
42 degrees, clear, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The Yellow Jackets have been giant slayers under Brent Key, taking down seven ranked opponents in the 2+ years with Key at the helm. But Georgia has dominated Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate in the 21st century, winning 19 of 22 games since 2001.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The early spread actually differs across sportsbooks, but DraftKings has it at -19 in favor of the home Bulldogs. With a total of 54.5 points, this is looking like a low-scoring affair. The Vegas spread and total imply a final score close to 37-18, in favor of the Bulldogs.
Georgia Tech’s Winning Probability
Sitting at 7-4, the Yellow Jackets have survived several close games, including wins over two teams ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game. They’ll have an uphill battle on Friday, though, with just a 12.3% chance to win against Georgia, per the FPM.
- at Georgia: 12.3%
Georgia’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM gives the Bulldogs a strong chance to win this game before playing the winner of the Texas Longhorns vs. Texas A&M Aggies game in the SEC championship. The Bulldogs have an 87.2% chance to win in Week 14, per the metric.
- vs. Georgia Tech: 87.2%
Prediction for Georgia Tech vs. Georgia
I won’t bury the lede. FanDuel has the line a point and a half higher than DraftKings, so I immediately took the Yellow Jackets +20.5 as my first bet of the week.
I really, really like the matchup here for the Yellow Jackets. Georgia’s rushing defense has been exposed in a few games this season, and if there’s one thing Georgia Tech likes to do, it’s run the ball.
The quarterback situation though, is odd.
Haynes King was the starter this year, but after an apparent shoulder injury, he’s been halfway replaced by Zach Pyron, who up until the injury was the change-of-pace runner but is now the change-of-pace passer.
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Whether Pyron or King or someone else though, Georgia Tech is still a power-running offense, and I think the Yellow Jackets can run the ball on Georgia’s front.
After all, the UMass Minutemen had success. So did the Ole Miss Rebels. The Mississippi State Bulldogs excelled in the passing game.
Basically, this Georgia defense has taken a huge step back from its complete dominance throughout most of the Kirby Smart era. And Georgia Tech has the type of offensive talent to have some success.
I really like Georgia Tech to cover, but the key matchup is Carson Beck against the Yellow Jacket defense. Beck has really struggled against pressure this season, completing just 34% of his passes with just three touchdowns and five interceptions when pressured.
If the Yellow Jackets can apply pressure, I think it will overshadow the holes in the secondary. Beck just can’t beat teams when pressured.
However, the Bulldogs finally seem healthy up front. The offensive line has been banged up but has played really well when at full strength.
There’s a path to victory for the Yellow Jackets, one that doesn’t even seem that crazy, but ultimately I think the Bulldogs can get ahead easily at home. That’s not good for a Yellow Jackets team that wants to grind teams down with the running game and isn’t built to play from behind.
That being said, the spread is far too big. Take Georgia Tech in one of the best bets of the week.
Prediction: Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 26
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