The Texas Longhorns control their own destiny within the SEC Championship Game scenarios and will now play a must-win game against archrival Texas A&M in Week 14. That is, of course, after they handled their business against Kentucky on Saturday.
Who will they face and how can they get to the SEC Championship Game now?
Texas’ SEC Championship Chances
As of the Sunday after Week 13, Texas has a 41.66% chance to make and win the SEC Championship Game. That’s because if they do win against A&M, they’ll be playing Georgia in a rematch of a classic game earlier in the year.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Texas can make the title game by defeating A&M, but even if they lose the game to A&M, they still have to go through tiebreaking procedures.
How Can Texas Make the SEC Championship Game?
In complete reality, we can save you the time from having to read everything below here: Texas and Texas A&M are in win-now mode as the winner of the game will face Georgia for the SEC Championship.
If Texas wins against A&M, they finished in sole possession of first place in the conference. If Texas loses against A&M, they finished in a three- or four-way tie for first place with the Aggies, Bulldogs, and/or Tennessee.
Here’s how the tiebreakers are set up:
- Head-to-head
- Record against all common SEC opponents
- Record against highest-placed common SEC opponents
- Cumulative SEC winning percentage of all SEC opponents
Suppose you’re comparing Texas and Texas A&M to Georgia in this situation. In that case, Texas is out because of one simple factor: The tiebreakers between these three (or even four teams) move all the way down to tiebreaking No. 4, pushing Texas A&M into the first-place spot with a win over Texas.
The remaining tied teams head back to the top of the tiebreaking table and start over. In this situation, Texas and Georgia return to the top, or Texas, Tennessee, and Georgia return to the top. The Bulldogs beat both Texas and Tennessee this season, so no matter the way they return to the top, Georgia advances and eliminates Texas and/or Tennessee.
Let’s go through it, so you know we did our homework without the SEC telling us this information.
Their record against all common SEC opponents is perfectly 2-0 each:
- Mississippi State (all four won)
- Florida (all four won)
That then pushes tiebreaker No. 3 out of the way as well, given they all beat the same teams.
So, we get to the cumulative SEC winning percentage of all SEC opponents.
Texas:
Mississippi State (0-7)
Oklahoma (2-5)
Georgia (6-2)
Vanderbilt (3-4)
Florida (4-4)
Arkansas (3-4)
Kentucky (1-7)
Texas A&M (5-2)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 24-33 (42.1%)
A&M:
Florida (4-4)
Arkansas (3-4)
Missouri (4-3)
Mississippi State (0-7)
LSU (4-3)
South Carolina (5-3)
Auburn (2-5)
Texas (6-1)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 28-30 (48.3%)
Georgia:
Kentucky (1-7)
Alabama (4-3)
Auburn (2-5)
Mississippi State (0-7)
Texas (6-1)
Florida (4-4)
Ole Miss (4-3)
Tennessee (5-2)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 26-32 (44.8%)
Tennessee:
Oklahoma (2-5)
Arkansas (3-4)
Florida (4-4)
Alabama (4-3)
Kentucky (1-7)
Mississippi State (0-7)
Georgia (6-2)
Vanderbilt (3-4)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 23-36 (38.9%)
There you see it — Texas A&M would win the tiebreaker based on their winning percentage and you revert back to tiebreaker No. 1, which Georgia owns over Texas and Tennessee.
Latest Texas Playoff Probability Following Week 13
Even if they miss the SEC Championship Game, it’s likely the Longhorns make the playoffs as an at-large team. In our latest simulation models, Texas is still given a 62.73% chance to make the playoffs.
Given how high they’ve been ranked by the committee this season, a lone slip-up in a conference full of worse losses this year, a two-loss Texas team is absolutely going to get placed in the playoffs.
A win against Texas A&M, however, will answer all these questions.
Longhorns’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Longhorns, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- @ Texas A&M: 58.9%
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