The Iowa State Cyclones won a hard-fought game in Salt Lake City against a pesky Utah Utes team on Saturday. In doing so, Iowa State set up a potential Big 12 elimination-style game for Week 14 against Kansas State.
But like everything in 2024, is it that simple and does beating Kansas State automatically qualify Iowa State for the Big 12 Championship Game?
Iowa State’s Big 12 Championship Chances
Entering Week 13, Iowa State had a 7.08% chance to win the Big 12. Following their win over Utah, however, the Cyclones only increased their chances to win the Big 12 to 7.96%. That’s because of the results from around the conference and those pesky tiebreaking scenarios put in place.
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Now that Week 13 has unfolded the way it has, Iowa State is automatically in the Big 12 Championship Game with a win against Kansas State. Thanks to the way the tiebreakers are formatted, the Cyclones need to simply win to settle the tiebreaking scenarios over the other tied teams.
How Can Iowa State Make the Big 12 Championship Game?
With Arizona State knocking off BYU and Kansas simultaneously defeating Colorado, the Big 12 race is now between four teams tied with two losses in conference play. These four teams and their probability to make and win the Big 12 Championship Game:
- Arizona State 44.40%
- Iowa State 39.96%
- BYU 7.96%
- Colorado 5.45%
So, let’s break that down a bit further.
Right now, if all four teams finish the season tied, it would be Arizona State that makes the Big 12 Championship. That means if Arizona State beats Arizona in Week 14, they’re in. Similarly, if the season were to end right then and there, Iowa State would also make it against Arizona State.
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Let’s break down how that works.
Arizona State holds the overall tiebreaking win over the four teams, and Iowa State holds the second spot. That is because of their opponent’s Big 12 winning percentage. Essentially, Iowa State’s Big 12 opponents have a higher winning percentage than BYU or Colorado at this point.
Don’t fret, Iowa State fans, now that the results are all coming in from Week 13, it’s clear that BYU nor Colorado’s opponent Big 12 records will not be good enough to break the tie with the Cyclones. It’s a win, and they’re in now that Kansas State has defeated Cincinnati and how the Week 14 matchups align.
Latest Colorado Playoff Probability Following Week 13
Right now, the Cyclones have a 40.06% chance of making the playoffs. That’s largely thanks to the fact that they have a 39.96% chance to win the conference, which would punch their automatic ticket.
The remaining minuscule amount is as an at-large team, which is a long shot at this point.
Iowa State has to beat Kansas State in Farmageddon and then beat Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship Game. Or whoever else makes the title game.
Colorado’s Remaining Schedule
- vs. Kansas State: 57.4%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 42.6%
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