The Alabama Crimson Tide were dealt a crushing blow at the hands of the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday. By losing their contest in Norman, the Crimson Tide saw their playoff hopes dashed and their place in the SEC crushed.
Just how bad is it for Alabama now, and what postseason hopes remain intact?
Alabama’s SEC Championship Chances
After Week 13, the Crimson Tide are officially eliminated from the SEC Championship Game. With their subsequent loss to Oklahoma and Texas’ win against Kentucky, in conjunction with Georgia finishing SEC play with only two losses, any team that suffered three defeats in SEC play this season is officially eliminated.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Alabama now has to hope they can take it to Auburn in the Iron Bowl and attempt to secure an at-large berth in the College Football Playoffs.
How Can Alabama Make the College Football Playoffs?
Right now, Alabama’s only chance of making the College Football Playoffs is as an at-large team. The committee will ultimately decide that, but it’s guaranteed they’ll take a steep drop in next week’s rankings.
Alabama was ranked No. 7 in the last iteration, above teams like Miami, Georgia, Tennessee, and SMU, which won and are still alive for their conference championship game(s).
For Alabama, their chances rely on how the committee views their losses but also the other team in contention for at-large bid’s action this weekend and all season as well.
Alabama likely slides down to where a team like Clemson was last ranked — No. 17. The real trouble will be figuring out where to place them with teams like South Carolina, also with three losses, and middling Big 12 teams are all ranked.
For Bama, it’s control what you can control, but also do it with some style points. No lead is too big to win by against Auburn in Week 14 to satisfy the committee’s viewing pleasures at this point.
Latest Alabama Playoff Probability Following Week 13
The Crimson Tide entered the week with a 29.28% chance to make the playoffs based on our simulation model. That number has now dwindled down to a mere 9.38% chance to make the playoffs.
Notably, that is nearly exactly what South Carolina had as their playoff probability and they came out on the other side ranked No. 18 by the committee. It will be interesting to see if that’s where ‘Bama comes out on Tuesday.
Crimson Tide’s Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Aggies, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- vs. Auburn: 83.5%
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