The Colorado Buffaloes’ shot at the postseason took a massive hit on Saturday when they dropped their contest against the Kansas Jayhawks. Despite that loss, the Buffs are not quite out of the Big 12 Championship Game and the playoffs remain a distant shot as well.
The tiebreakers, however, aren’t too kind to Colorado, so they need the most help to make the Big 12 Championship Game.
Colorado’s Big 12 Championship Chances
Entering Week 13, Colorado had a 46.39% chance to win the Big 12. Following their loss to Kansas, however, the Buffaloes dropped their chances to win the Big 12 all the way down to 5.45%.
The Buffaloes aren’t automatically out of the Big 12 Championship Game with their loss, though. But thanks to the victories and losses throughout the season, the tiebreakers are not kind to Colorado.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Those tiebreaking scenarios leave the Buffaloes with only one option to make the Big 12 Championship Game.
How Can Colorado Make the Big 12 Championship Game?
With Arizona State knocking off BYU and Kansas simultaneously defeating Colorado, the Big 12 race is now between four teams tied with two losses in conference play. These four teams and their probability to make and win the Big 12 Championship Game:
- Arizona State 44.40%
- Iowa State 39.96%
- BYU 7.96%
- Colorado 5.45%
So, let’s break that down a bit further.
Right now, if all four teams finish the season tied, it would be Arizona State that makes the Big 12 Championship. That means if Arizona State beats Arizona in Week 14, they’re in.
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And for Colorado, unfortunately, if all four teams win in Week 14, it would be the Buffaloes who end up as the fourth-place team in the Big 12 thanks to the tiebreaking scenarios.
Arizona State holds the overall tiebreaking win over the four teams and Iowa State owns the second spot. That means, for Colorado to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they would need any combination of two of the other three teams losing in Week 14 to advance.
Making it easier to understand, here are the results that would get Colorado into the Big 12 title game:
- Colorado win, Iowa State win, Arizona State loss, BYU loss
Colorado would play Iowa State - Colorado win, Iowa State loss, Arizona State win, BYU loss
Colorado would play Arizona State - Colorado win, Iowa State loss, Arizona State loss, BYU win
Colorado would play BYU
If any two of the tied teams win, Colorado’s Big 12 Championship hopes would be dashed. However, thanks to the odds of our simulation model, it still likes the Buffaloes to win the Big 12 if they face either of these tied teams and give them the highest probability of winning their Week 14 matchup.
They just need some luck to get there.
Latest Colorado Playoff Probability Following Week 13
Right now, the Buffaloes have a 5.78% chance of making the playoffs. That’s largely thanks to the fact that they have a 5.45% chance to win the conference, which would punch their automatic ticket.
The remaining minuscule amount is as an at-large team, which is a long shot at this point.
Colorado has to beat Oklahoma State and then beat whoever makes the title game opposite them.
Colorado’s Remaining Schedule
- vs. Oklahoma State: 89.8%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 64.1%
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