A dream season that once was is now a nightmare for the BYU Cougars. Following a 9-0 start, the Cougars have dropped two straight and now are in jeopardy of missing the Big 12 Championship Game.
Yet, BYU’s Big 12 Championship chances are still intact and aren’t that far out of reach.
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Chances
Entering Week 13, BYU had an 18.70% chance to win the Big 12. Following their loss against the Arizona State Sun Devils, however, the Cougars chances dropped to a mere 5.45% to win the Big 12.
BYU isn’t automatically out of the Big 12 Championship Game with their loss against ASU in Week 13; however, thanks to a loss by Colorado at the same time, BYU and the Big 12 are essentially guaranteed to go to tiebreakers in the Big 12 Championship Game scenarios.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
And it’s those tiebreaking scenarios that mean BYU would need some help to get in.
How Can BYU Make the Big 12 Championship Game?
With Arizona State knocking off BYU and Kansas simultaneously defeating Colorado, the Big 12 race is now between four teams tied with two losses in conference play. These four teams and their probability to make and win the Big 12 Championship Game:
- Arizona State 44.40%
- Iowa State 39.96%
- BYU 7.96%
- Colorado 5.45%
So, let’s break that down a bit further.
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Right now, if all four teams finish the season tied, it would be Arizona State that makes the Big 12 Championship first. The tiebreaking scenarios would then pit Colorado vs. BYU vs. Iowa State. In that scenario, Colorado would be the first to be eliminated on the fact that they lost to Kansas State while Iowa State and BYU would have beaten the Wildcats.
The tiebreakers reset and BYU and Iowa State go at it as a two-team tie for second place.
Unfortunately for Cougars fans, that’s where the BYU luck would run out. If Iowa State were to beat Kansas State in Week 14, Iowa State would own the tiebreaker over BYu due to their conference opponent’s winning percentage in Big 12 play.
Iowa State’s current Big 12 winning percentage of their conference opponents sits at 26-35 compared to BYU’s 24-39.
All this to say, BYU needs Iowa State to lose to Kansas State in order to clinch the Big 12 Championship Game.
To be perfectly clear, BYU’s easiest road to the Big 12 Championship is to win against Houston in Week 14 and have Iowa State lose to Kansas State. That would put BYU in against Arizona State, over Colorado, as they do not own the tiebreakers over ASU but do over the Buffaloes.
Latest BYU Playoff Probability Following Week 13
Right now, the Cougars have a 6.50% chance of making the playoffs. That’s a big drop off from the 55.34% chance they had a week ago, thanks to two losses in a row. It’s win the Big 12 to get into the playoffs for BYU now.
BYU’s Remaining Schedule
- vs. Houston: 87.8%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 49.4%
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