Clemson Tigers fans, you are not out of it yet. In fact, you’re far from out of it and a handful of scenarios puts you right back where you thought you’d be at the beginning of the season: In the ACC Championship Game.
However, that comes with a caveat.
Clemson’s ACC Championship Game Road Map
First things first, kudos to you, Clemson. You’ve finished ACC play at 7-1 and guaranteed yourself at least a tie for second place in the conference. Now, let’s get a little luck and get a little chaos to ensue in the final two weeks of the regular season to get you back to the ACC Championship Game.
There is an easier road, a confusing road, and a confoundingly difficult road that all end up in the same place: Clemson playing SMU or Miami for the ACC title.
These scenarios are presented ahead of the Week 13 slate and here’s how Clemson can get into the ACC Championship Game:
- SMU loses to Virginia and Cal
- Miami loses to Wake Forest or Syracuse
Either of those two scenarios puts Clemson into the ACC Championship Game. That’s the easy way to do it. There are two trickier scenarios, though, both that include tiebreaking procedures. And one that involves Clemson’s exit.
Let’s break those down by simply placing Clemson in the combination of ties they can be in.
SMU, Clemson, Miami All Tie for First Place
With only three teams left in contention, there’s a road map where Miami wins out, and SMU drops one of their final two games. This would place SMU, Clemson, and Miami all in the same tiebreaking scenario as all three would technically be tied for first place.
In a multi-team tie for first place, the ACC tiebreakers state that among the tied teams, you look for one winner and then restart at the top of the applicable tiebreaking scenarios for the remaining teams. The first tiebreaking scenario is head-to-head record of the tied teams.
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These three teams didn’t play each other this year, meaning no matter the outcome of the ties, you can skip past tiebreaker No. 1.
After getting past the head-to-head portion, you have to skip down to tiebreaker No. 3 in the ACC, which is simply each tied team’s winning percentage vs. common conference opponents.
SMU’s ACC Opponents:
Florida State (W)
Louisville (W)
Stanford (W)
Duke (W)
Pittsburgh (W)
Boston College (W)
Virginia (tbd)
Cal (tbd)
Clemson’s ACC Opponents:
NC State (W)
Stanford (W)
Florida State (W)
Wake Forest (W)
Virginia (W)
Louisville (L)
Virginia Tech (W)
Pittsburgh (W)
Miami’s ACC Opponents:
Virginia Tech (W)
Cal (W)
Louisville (W)
Florida State (W)
Duke (W)
Georgia Tech (L)
Wake Forest (tbd)
Syracuse (tbd)
Making it easier to read, the common opponents between these three teams are: Florida State and Louisville. And in this scenario, we’re assuming SMU loses to either Virginia or Cal, thus not affecting their winning percentage against conference opponents.
This scenario gives us a two-way tie atop the standings and eliminates Clemson from the ACC Championship Game.
Miami and Clemson Tie for Second Place (7-1)
Similarly, in this scenario, we envision SMU winning out and Miami doing the same. That means Clemson and Miami will remain tied and also get down to tiebreaker No. 3 to settle the beef. Just like above, Clemson would be eliminated on account of their loss to Louisville, a common opponent between the Tigers and Hurricanes.
Needless to say, there are three ways this ACC season can unfold, but only one way in which Clemson makes the title game: Miami losing one or SMU losing two. You’re cheering on chaos and rooting for Virginia, Cal, Wake Forest, and Syracuse to pull the upsets.
Can Clemson Make the College Football Playoffs?
The latter question to Clemson’s postseason fortune lies within the Tigers doing their part and getting a bit of help. It’s clear that Clemson likely has to make the playoffs as an at-large team, but they’re set up nicely for some games to fall in their favor if they also handle their business against The Citadel and South Carolina.
Let’s break down where Clemson is in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings to understand that.
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Clemson currently sits at No. 17 in the rankings — ahead of them are SMU and Miami, both of whom we can expect to have at least one more loss this season, and thus eliminating them from contention. That would push Clemson up one more spot in the rankings if they win out.
Also in the picture here are the Big 12’s BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, and Arizona State. Whichever of these four teams wins the Big 12 will earn their spot, but BYU and Colorado are currently ranked higher than Clemson.
For the Tigers to make the playoffs, we can also assume that BYU and/or Colorado will drop a game on the road to the Big 12, but at best, Clemson would move up one spot given one of these four Big 12 teams make the 12-team field by winning the conference.
So, hypothetically, if Clemson wins out, and by virtue of teams playing each other, the Tigers are moved into the No. 15 seed right now. How else can they move up?
For Clemson to close the gap into the top 12 teams (really it’s the top seven non-conference-champion teams), they would need some luck. Texas and Texas A&M play each other, but Texas is all but in even with a loss. If A&M loses, that opens the door for Clemson to make up another spot given A&M’s 15th ranking right now.
Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Notre Dame have games in the final two weeks that will test them and could essentially drop one of those, and Clemson would be fortunate if they did.
In reality, the biggest wild card will be the final result of the Ohio State vs. Indiana game in Week 13. If Ohio State handles Indiana like the latest projections indicate, it will be incredibly telling what the committee thinks of Indiana when they release their rankings on Tuesday.
Don’t be surprised if Ohio State comfortably defeats Indiana that the Hoosiers will be knocked out of the playoff picture. And that would behoove Clemson greatly.
And so, if you’ve read this far, you’re likely looking for the road map in as clear of text as I can provide. Let me outline what should happen for Clemson to make the playoffs as an at-large team:
- Clemson wins out, but misses ACC Championship Game (Clemson, at worst, stays at 17th)
- BYU, Colorado, Arizona State, or Iowa State make the playoffs (Clemson moves up 1)
- Ole Miss loses to Florida (Ole Miss is essentially eliminated, Clemson moves up 1)
- Texas A&M loses to Texas (A&M is eliminated, Clemson moves up 1)
- Tennessee loses at Vanderbilt (Vols are eliminated, Clemson moves up 1)
- Ohio State dominates Indiana (Indiana falls greatly, Clemson moves up 1)
All of these are incredibly lofty aspirations for Clemson to make the playoffs, but crazier things have happened.
In reality, Clemson wants to make the ACC Championship Game via their road map above and fight for their right to make it as the ACC champ, rather than hope an at-large bid comes to fruition. That, however, also comes with the aforementioned caveat that if you don’t win the ACC, you guarantee you don’t make the playoffs.
They’re alive for both, but both need some outside help AND for Clemson to beat a red-hot rival in South Carolina in the regular season finale.
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