The undefeated Indiana Hoosiers head to Columbus, Ohio, to take on the one-loss Ohio State Buckeyes in a clash that will determine not only the Big Ten Football Championship Game but also a likely spot in the College Football Playoff.
Who claims victory? Our Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction dives into all the key details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they fight through the home stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Indiana vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -7.5 - Spread
Ohio State -10 - Moneyline
Ohio State -410, Indiana +320 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
41 degrees, cloudy, 12 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Few matchups are as lopsided in history as Indiana vs. Ohio State. Saturday will mark the 97th meeting between the two teams, with the Buckeyes dominating the series 79-12-5. Ohio State has also claimed 28 consecutive victories over the Hoosiers. While Week 13 might present Indiana with its best chance at a win since 1988, they remain significant underdogs.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Ohio State’s favored status hasn’t always worked in their favor this season. They fell to Oregon despite a -175 moneyline and have struggled to cover spreads, going 5-5 ATS. Indiana, meanwhile, has been impressive in this unbeaten campaign, posting an 8-2 ATS record. However, the Hoosiers are coming off their first spread miss since their 2024 season opener.
Indiana’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM isn’t as harsh on the Hoosiers’ chances as Vegas, but it still has Indiana listed as a 7.5-point underdog. The metric gives them just a 27% chance to pull off the win. With the season set to wrap up against the worst team in the Power Four, this game feels like it could define their regular season.
- at Ohio State: 27%
- vs. Purdue: 98.4%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, Ohio State boasts a 73% chance of defeating Indiana on their home turf. Our metric suggests the Buckeyes will be even stronger favorites when they face off against their rival, the Michigan Wolverines. Should Ohio State win out, they’ll secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship, likely squaring off against the Oregon Ducks.
- vs. Indiana: 73%
- at Michigan: 91.9%
Prediction for Indiana vs. Ohio State
It all comes down to this (well, and next week, to be fair). Indiana heads to Columbus for a showdown with Ohio State—a game that could decide a College Football Playoff berth and a spot in the Big Ten Championship.
Exactly like we all expected, right?
When Indiana hired Curt Cignetti, we at College Football Network were optimistic about the move, but even we didn’t see this coming. The Hoosiers sit at 10-0 for the first time in program history, staring down a legitimate shot at the College Football Playoff—possibly even a first-round bye.
But first, they’ll need to overcome the Buckeyes. And if they can’t? The story around Indiana could shift dramatically.
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By our strength of schedule metric, Indiana has faced the 66th-easiest slate in the country—much tougher than ESPN’s metric, which ranks it 100th. Still, the Hoosiers have handled their business, winning all but one game by at least two touchdowns.
That said, a blowout loss on Saturday would spark serious—and fair—questions about Indiana’s legitimacy. Are they truly elite, or just another Penn State? A team that dominates the Big Ten’s bottom tier but falters against its best?
On the other hand, a competitive showing—even in a loss—could still make the Hoosiers playoff-worthy.
As for the game itself, Indiana’s defense gives them a puncher’s chance. The key matchup lies in Ohio State’s offensive line. While the Buckeyes are stacked at the skill positions, their line is merely average, and their quarterback play is slightly above that. For Indiana, the blueprint for victory isn’t a high-scoring affair. It’s about clock control, limiting possessions, and pouncing on Buckeye mistakes.
Expect Cignetti to dial back his usual aggressive defensive play calls, aiming instead to force Ohio State into grinding, mistake-prone drives by eliminating big plays.
Even so, Ohio State’s depth and talent—particularly at receiver and along the defensive line—should prove decisive. Indiana’s second-half struggles against Michigan’s defensive front exposed a troubling weakness, with the Hoosiers unable to generate much offense after halftime. Ohio State’s front is just as good, if not better, and their receivers have the capability to break open even a disciplined Indiana defense.
Don’t expect Ohio State to dominate from the opening whistle. Indiana’s defense is good enough to keep the game close early. But over the course of four quarters, the Buckeyes’ superior talent should take control. The bigger question is Indiana’s offense—can they do enough to stay competitive, even with a valiant defensive effort?
Prediction: The Buckeyes cover, and the game hits the under.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Indiana 14
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