What happens if Alabama loses on Saturday? Or if Florida beats Ole Miss? What about if Kentucky upsets Texas? Or if Auburn defeats Texas A&M?
As taxing and daunting as it may seem, let this helpful guide below assist you as best we can with the hypothetical SEC Championship Game scenarios for all the action across Week 13.
What Happens If Ole Miss Beats Florida?
If the Ole Miss Rebels defeat the Florida Gators on Saturday, we still have the distinct possibility of a five-team (or six) tie for second place in the SEC. The Rebels are favored to knock off the Gators in Gainesville, but the entire Florida program has seemingly turned a corner since QB DJ Lagway has returned from injury and they’ve announced the retention of head coach Billy Napier.
MORE: Full SEC Football Tiebreaking Procedure
In all likelihood, however, it’s a Rebels’ win that continues the chance for chaos, and that’s why we’re all here. This is the most likely scenario from Gainesville on Saturday and the one that helps Ole Miss stay alive.
What Happens If Florida Beats Ole Miss?
This one’s simple: If Ole Miss loses to Florida, they’re out of the SEC Championship Game picture, and they’re also more than likely out of the College Football Playoffs. Ole Miss would have three conference losses, and as it stands right now, Georgia has finished conference play with two losses, and the most losses Texas A&M and/or Texas can combine for is two losses.
Any team that reaches three losses at this point is subsequently eliminated. But that’s not it if Florida defeats Ole Miss.
The Gators are an uncommon opponent in the tiebreaking scenario between the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide. If it gets to tiebreaker No. 4 in the SEC Tiebreaking Procedures, that will lead to comparing the conference opponent’s SEC winning percentage. Before Week 13, Alabama owns that tiebreaker between all potentially tied teams.
However, if Florida defeats Ole Miss, that gives Georgia a leg up on Alabama by giving them an additional victory over one of their opponents, that also doesn’t help the Tide’s opponent’s winning percentage. Georgia fans — you’re actually rooting for Florida here.
What Happens If Kentucky Beats Texas?
If the Kentucky Wildcats beat the Texas Longhorns, then pandemonium is set to ensue. The Longhorns control their destiny and can win out to make the SEC Championship Game. But if Kentucky were to upset Texas, that would put the Longhorns on the brink of elimination against Texas A&M in Week 14.
MORE: Latest SEC Championship Game Scenarios
At worst, it would put Texas in a tiebreaking scenario with Georgia, the large majority of which would end up with Texas missing the SEC Championship Game altogether. As nice as that sounds for Georgia fans as well, you’re rooting for Texas to win this one to make the tiebreaking scenarios for second place a bit less cloudy as a Longhorn win would also boost Georgia’s opponent winning percentage. But then again, it lowers it as Kentucky is also an uncommon opponent of Georgia’s. It’s a lose-lose here for UGA.
What Happens If Texas Beats Kentucky?
If the Longhorns knock off Kentucky like the odds say they will, they will continue to hold their own destiny. Texas is a large favorite over Kentucky but can’t get caught lacking while looking ahead to A&M.
A Texas win gives them the benefit of at the very least finishing in a tie for second place in the SEC with Georgia and a handful of other possible teams. Beating Kentucky doesn’t affect much more than that, save for helping boost Georgia’s resume, as stated above.
What Happens If Alabama Beats Oklahoma?
Similar to Texas beating Kentucky, if the Alabama Crimson Tide beat the Oklahoma Sooners like they should, it keeps Alabama alive and continues to allow for more chaos to unfold. Alabama would have two conference losses entering the Iron Bowl in Week 14 with a win against Oklahoma.
The Tide have to win out and hope that they can find a way to knock off Georgia in the tiebreaking scenarios, but if the teams were to all finish tied right now, ‘Bama would be in. Defeating Oklahoma just means we’re still on that path.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Alabama is rooting for Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Missouri, and LSU to win five combined games to stay ahead of Georgia in the fourth tiebreaking scenario.
What Happens If Oklahoma Beats Alabama?
If Oklahoma defeats Alabama, that’s it for Alabama. The Crimson Tide would be eliminated from the SEC Championship Game by virtue of three conference losses and likely pushed out of playoff contention as well.
Oklahoma’s winning percentage isn’t factored into most teams, but Ole Miss and Tennessee, who are alive as long shots, would reap the most benefits here.
What Happens If Texas A&M Beats Auburn?
If the Texas A&M Aggies defeat the Auburn Tigers, they set up a win-and-you’re-in game against Texas next week. The Aggies can all but clinch at least a tie for second place in the SEC with a win over Auburn.
Aside from that, A&M didn’t play any of the other teams that are in contention for a tie and their record is seemingly independent and not worthy of value for any other teams if they defeat Auburn. Georgia and Alabama, however, who have Auburn on their schedule, would see their conference opponent’s SEC winning percentage take a hit with Auburn losing another.
What Happens If Auburn Beats Texas A&M?
If Auburn beats Texas A&M, it sets up an elimination game for A&M in Week 14. However, in this scenario, A&M won’t quite be eliminated completely, as they’d take their second loss and have to defeat Texas next week to clinch a potential six-way tie for first place in the conference.
Auburn beating A&M could cause the most chaos, especially if A&M loses but then beats Texas. The same could be said if Kentucky beats Texas but then beats A&M the week after. In these situations, we’d have at least three teams tied with two conference losses with Georgia and whoever else finishes with two losses between Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss added to the picture.
Who Are Georgia Fans Rooting For?
Right now, if we get into the tiebreaking scenarios between all five (or six) teams that are in contention for the second place spot, it’s very likely that this will come down to the fourth tiebreaking scenario as set forth by the SEC. In that scenario, each SEC team in the tied group is ranked by their opponent’s winning percentage in SEC play this season.
And as of right now, Georgia is a game behind Alabama in that tiebreaking scenario.
So, Georgia fans, you’re hoping that your uncommon opponents to Alabama all take wins down the stretch this season. Let me be clear, Georgia fans, you want the following teams to win, though four of them are set to split outings this weekend:
- Mississippi State (vs. Missouri)
- Texas (vs. Kentucky; vs. Texas A&M)
- Kentucky (vs. Texas)
- Florida (vs. Ole Miss)
- Ole Miss (vs. Florida — or specifically, vs. Mississippi State in Week 14)
Their five uncommon opponents will split their games, meaning they’re going to at least add three losses to their combined opponent SEC winning percentage by the end of the season.
Georgia fans are also rooting for Alabama’s uncommon opponents to take losses. That means the Bulldogs are rooting against:
- Vanderbilt (vs. LSU; vs. Tennessee)
- South Carolina (doesn’t play another conference game)
- Missouri (vs. Mississippi State)
- LSU (vs. Vanderbilt; vs. Oklahoma)
Like Georgia, Alabama’s uncommon opponents will split at least one game here meaning they have to take at least one more loss on their schedule.
As plain as we can be here, Georgia fans, if you want to knock out opponents and help your own cause in the tiebreakers, you’re cheering on:
- Mississippi State
- Texas
- Florida
- LSU
- Vanderbilt
Each of these teams taking wins in Week 13 will help Georgia’s case. But the simplest case is this:
- Texas wins
- Texas A&M loses
- Texas then beats Texas A&M
- Alabama loses once
- Ole Miss loses once
- Tennessee loses once
That scenario gives the Dawgs the second-place finish outright and pits them against Texas in the SEC Championship Game.
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