When fans saw that the Vanderbilt Commodores were going on the road to face the LSU Tigers, most didn’t expect the line would be so small, but the Commodores have put together an outstanding season while Brian Kelly has made many a postgame table shudder as the losses have piled up for the Tigers.
While the Tigers are favored, the pitchforks will be out if they lose to Vanderbilt. The spread implies that could happen. Find out if we think the Commodores will pull off the upset in this Vanderbilt vs. LSU prediction.
Vanderbilt vs. LSU Betting Preview
All Vanderbilt vs. LSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
LSU -6 - Spread
LSU -7.5 - Moneyline
LSU -298, Vanderbilt +240 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 23, 7:45 p.m. ET - Location
Tiger Stadium | Baton Rouge, La. - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, clear, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Each of these teams seems to be sputtering out at the wrong time. While Vanderbilt has lost two of three, LSU has dropped three in a row, and both offenses are running on fumes. One will have to get back on track on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
While a 7.5-point spread seemed crazy three months ago, it’s actually dropped from nine this week. The total has also ticked down to 53.5 after starting at 54.5 points. As of now, the spread and total imply a game close to 31-23 in favor of the Tigers.
Vanderbilt’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is closely aligned with Vegas, making the Commodores moderate road underdogs. Vanderbilt has a 34.3% chance to win the game, per the metric. It’ll end with a tough game against the Tennessee Volunteers, but the metric gives it a 55% chance to win one of its two remaining games and get to seven wins.
- at LSU: 34.3%
- vs. Tennessee: 31.2%
LSU’s Winning Probability
LSU wanted to win the conference and make the College Football Playoff, but both of those goals have been shattered. Now, the Tigers will look to simply finish the year with some momentum. The Tigers have two very winnable games to end the season, with a 65.7% chance to beat Vanderbilt on Saturday.
- vs. Vanderbilt: 65.7%
- vs. Oklahoma: 74.9%
Prediction for Vanderbilt vs. LSU
While both teams have the same record, one team is feeling much better than the other.
LSU has lost three straight to drop to 6-4, and it could be worse if not for two extremely close wins over South Carolina and Ole Miss that the Tigers could (and probably should) have lost.
I have real concerns about the Tigers’ ability to show up for the rest of the season. As the kids say, the vibes aren’t good.
While these games could seem meaningless given the Tigers’ preseason goals, it’s vitally important that they win out to regain some momentum and head into National Signing Day on a high note. If not, their best recruiting class of the decade could fall apart.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt got bodied by the South Carolina Gamecocks two weeks ago before a much-needed bye week. The record still looks good, but the Commodores are limping to the finish.
Both teams have had similar problems for seemingly different reasons. Both Diego Pavia and Garrett Nussmeier have elevated the team around them with their play but have struggled in recent weeks.
Pavia’s struggles can be attributed simply to his health. As a guy who typically takes a lot of hits, Pavia has started to wear down as the season has progressed. While there’s no indication he’s injured, he took one of the hardest hits of any quarterback this season against the Gamecocks.
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On the other hand, Nussmeier is just not playing well. He’s played with fire by getting passes away just before taking sacks all season. But now, the pressure seems to be getting to him. Eleven of his 12 sacks and nine of his 16 interceptable passes have come in the last three weeks.
Nussmeier has gone from a strength to a liability in the month of November.
The struggles of the quarterbacks have led to a sharp decline in offense. Vanderbilt has put up just 18.4 points per game since the Alabama win while LSU is averaging 17.3 in its last three games. The winner is the team that can get back into early-season form.
I think Vanderbilt’s issues lie more in the wear and tear of an SEC schedule than a discernible change in offensive ability. On the other hand, I think defenses are figuring out Nussmeier and the LSU offense.
There’s also a nagging voice in my head asking if LSU will play hard the rest of the year. Again, the relationship between Kelly and the players and fans seems tense, at best, right now.
I really like the things that Pavia can do and think the Commodores can find a lot of room on the ground. I think that might be just enough to pull off the upset. If so, we might have a “Five Candidates To Replace Brian Kelly” article on College Football Network in the next few weeks.
This game is a litmus test, and if the Commodores’ defense can stop the Tigers, it’ll be a long offseason in Baton Rouge.
Whoever wins, I feel much better about the under in this one and think it’s a great value to snag early this week. I think Pavia’s fresh legs are the difference and that Vanderbilt can pull off an outright upset.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 27, LSU 24
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