Week 13 Fox Friday Night football features a Big Ten matchup between the 1-9 Purdue Boilermakers and the 4-6 Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing. The Spartans are looking to secure bowl eligibility, while the Boilermakers desperately need a win.
Who will prevail? Our Purdue vs. Michigan State prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Purdue vs. Michigan State Betting Preview
All Purdue vs. Michigan State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Michigan State -10.5 - Spread
Michigan State -13.5 - Moneyline
Michigan State -535, Purdue +400 - Over/Under
47.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Spartan Stadium | East Lansing, MI - Predicted Weather at Kick
36 degrees, overcast with showers possible, 14 mph winds - How to Watch
Fox
Friday night marks the 69th time that Purdue and Michigan State have faced off, although the two teams haven’t met since 2021. While the Boilermakers won that last matchup comfortably, the Spartans hold a 36-29-3 advantage heading into their Week 13 clash. Understandably, Michigan State is a substantial favorite to increase that head-to-head lead.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
It is just the second time this season that the Spartans have been favored ahead of a game, and they won in both of those outings. The moneyline and spread are similar to their season-opener against the Florida Atlantic Owls, and while they weren’t able to cover in that game, they should against a Purdue team that is 2-8 ATS during the 2024 college football season.
Purdue’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Purdue has a 20.7% chance of beating Michigan State on Friday night. Our metric has been in lockstep with the Boilermakers’ disastrous season, accurately projecting their opening-day win and subsequent nine defeats.
Here are the win probabilities for Purdue’s final two games of the 2024 season:
- at Michigan State: 20.7%
- at Indiana: 1.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Boilermakers would end the year with a 1-11 overall record and go winless in Big Ten play. That would match the 2013 season as the worst in program history. Failing to win on Friday night could end head coach Ryan Walters’ tenure.
Michigan State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Michigan State has a 79.3% chance of beating Purdue on Friday night. Our metric has accurately predicted all the Spartans’ games this season, and the projection for their game against the Boilermakers is their third-best win probability of the year.
Here are the win probabilities for Michigan State’s final two games of the 2024 season:
- vs. Purdue: 79.3%
- vs. Rutgers: 49.2%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Spartans would end the year with a 5-7 record, including a 3-6 Big Ten campaign. Although it has been a difficult first season for Jonathan Smith in East Lansing, it would represent a one-win improvement compared to the previous year.
Prediction for Purdue vs. Michigan State
While it might not leap off the page as one of the more attractive games of the Week 13 schedule, there are plenty of intriguing storylines at play when Purdue travels to East Lansing on Friday night. Michigan State needs a win to keep their chances of securing a bowl berth alive, with defeat spelling disaster for their hopes of playing in the postseason.
For the Boilermakers, a win is even more critical. The program hasn’t beaten an FBS team all season, and with head coach Walters nursing a 5-17 record as the head coach, he’s fighting for survival as the Purdue head coach. So, who holds the advantage, and where will the critical battles unfold?
Michigan State has had problems on both sides of the ball in this first season under Smith, but the offense has been particularly problematic. Aidan Chiles is a talented young quarterback with a bright future, but he has proven turnover-happy when thrust into the full-time starting role this year.
Between Chiles and WR Nick Marsh, they’ve gone the foundations of a dynamic offense for the 2025 season. However, between some difficulties in the passing game and the inability to establish much in the way of a rushing attack (despite landing highly-regarded portal running back Kay’ron Lynch-Adams), they’ve averaged just 19.4 points per game in the 2024 season.
Thankfully for the Spartans, the Purdue defense has been putrid this year. Walters was hired on the back of his defensive prowess, but the Boilermakers haven’t been able to stop a thing this year. They rank 131st in the nation for scoring defense, have allowed the most passing yards per attempt in conference, and have given up 10 more rushing scores than any other Big Ten team.
Their offense has been just as bad. Sure, they’ve faced some of the better Big Ten defenses in a brutal schedule, but they’ve averaged just 17.2 points per game. Hudson Card hasn’t stayed healthy and hasn’t had the impact expected, and Devin Mockobee can’t carry the team on his own. Michigan State’s defense is middling at best, but that shouldn’t matter here.
Prediction: Purdue 14, Michigan State 30
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