The Crosstown Cup between the USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins has been one of the better rivalries in college football — it helps that it features a vibrant jersey combination, with both sides wearing their home colors.
The Trojans own the series lead (50-34-7), but the Bruins took them down a peg with a 38-20 victory last year.
Our USC vs. UCLA prediction breaks down the matchup, offering key betting insights to help you make smarter, more confident picks.
USC vs. UCLA Betting Preview
All USC vs. UCLA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
USC -2 - Spread
USC -4.5 - Moneyline
USC -185, UCLA +154 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 23 - Location
Rose Bowl | Pasadena, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, 3 mph winds, showers - How To Watch
NBC
The Trojans have been abysmal on the road recently, going 0-4 against the spread. Of course, they won’t need to travel far for this one, with the Rose Bowl just a 40-minute drive from the Coliseum.
The Bruins, meanwhile, are on the come-up after a poor start to the year, going 4-1 ATS in their last five.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
However, neither side has been particularly exciting when it comes to the total:
- The under has hit in four of UCLA’s last five contests.
- The over has cashed in three of USC’s previous five outings.
USC’s Winning Probability
The Trojans may not be playing for a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff or the Big Ten Championship, but they could still make a bowl game with just one more win. Yet, their next two opponents won’t make it easy: bitter rival UCLA and the top-10 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
- at UCLA: 53.4%
- vs. Notre Dame: 27.0%
UCLA’s Winning Probability
Following a 1-5 start, it appeared the Bruins were destined for obscurity in Year 1 of the DeShaun Foster era. Instead, they are now just two wins away from bowl eligibility — though it won’t be easy to win out. UCLA faces crosstown rival USC and the Fresno State Bulldogs to end the year, who it hasn’t defeated since 2000.
- vs. USC: 46.6%
- vs. Fresno State: 79.6%
Prediction for USC vs. UCLA
UCLA and USC find themselves in unfamiliar territory, both sitting at 3-5 in Big Ten play and fighting to secure bowl eligibility. The Bruins need to win out in Foster’s debut season, while the Trojans are just one victory away from extending their season.
USC gained momentum in Week 12 with a 28-20 win over Nebraska, fueled by Jayden Maiava’s first start in Los Angeles. The UNLV transfer impressed, completing 25 of 35 passes for 259 yards and three TDs while avoiding costly mistakes.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Maiava’s efficiency has kept USC’s offense inside the top 25 in success rate (21st), and his poise could be a deciding factor against UCLA’s struggling defense.
Defensively, the Bruins have been among the nation’s worst. UCLA ranks in the bottom 15 in quality drives allowed, defensive finishing drives, and net points allowed per drive.
They’ve also allowed opposing QBs to dominate, ranking 129th in contested catches forced and 118th in defensive dropback success rate. These deficiencies could spell trouble against Maiava, who has already proven he can capitalize on weak secondaries.
On offense, UCLA’s struggles mirror its defensive woes. The Bruins managed just 4.2 yards per play against the Washington Huskies in Week 12, generating zero explosive drives. Even when they near scoring opportunities, UCLA has averaged a dismal three points per trip on 50 extended red-zone possessions this season.
QB Ethan Garbers will have his hands full against a USC defense that excels in limiting explosive plays, ranking second nationally in that category. The Trojans also rank in the top 30 in passing efficiency on defensive passing downs, giving them a significant edge against UCLA’s sputtering attack.
With both teams leaning heavily on their aerial offenses, the edge goes to Maiava and USC, whose defense is better equipped (29th in EPA per dropback) to handle the high volume of passing attempts this rivalry game promises.
Prediction: USC 21, UCLA 17
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