It finally happened. The BYU Cougars played a one-score game and didn’t emerge with a miraculous victory. But despite seeing the end of their improbable streak, the Cougars have all their season’s goals in front of them.
However, they’ll need to beat an extremely strong Arizona State Sun Devils team to avoid a late-season collapse. The Sun Devils are playing great football, but can they ruin BYU’s season? Find out which way we lean in this BYU vs. Arizona State prediction.
BYU vs. Arizona State Betting Preview
All BYU vs. Arizona State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Arizona State -3.5 - Moneyline
Arizona State -155, BYU +130 - Over/Under
49 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 23, 3:30 ET - Location
Mountain America Stadium | Tempe, Ariz. - Predicted Weather at Kick
74 degrees, sunny, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
While all eyes seem to be on the Cougars, the Sun Devils still have a path to the College Football Playoff. While that path seemed slim just last week, BYU’s loss to Kansas opened the door. The fact that they’re alive in the Big 12 championship hunt is a testament to Kenny Dillingham’s coaching.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Arizona State is actually favored at home here as Vegas continues to fade BYU. With a spread of 3.5 points and a total of 49, the sportsbooks expect a close game with a score near 26-23, in favor of the Sun Devils.
BYU’s Winning Probability
BYU defied the odds to go undefeated this season until last week. Now, the Cougars are still alive, but there’s no wiggle room. A loss this week would have BYU losing the tie-breaker to Arizona State, so a win is vital. This one is a true toss-up, as CFN’s FPM gives the Cougars a 49.4% chance to beat the Sun Devils
- at Arizona State: 49.4%
- vs. Houston: 87.8%
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
All of a sudden, Arizona State has a shot to make the Big 12 Championship Game. FPM gives the Sun Devils a 50.6% chance to beat the Cougars, then there’s a showdown with in-state rival Arizona.
- vs. BYU: 50.6%
- at Arizona: 65.1%
Prediction for BYU vs. Arizona State
Not only has Arizona State won three straight, but the Sun Devils have done so without their best player for a large portion of that time.
Still, they’ll need Cam Skattebo to make real noise in the postseason. But even without him, they’ve been incredibly physical, perhaps surprisingly some of their competition.
This is a complete 180 in style for BYU to go from the Kansas Jayhawks to Arizona State. The Jayhawks run more of a side-to-side offense with a lot of window dressing. Arizona State will also run a lot of motion, but it’s typically just there to add some wrinkles to how the Sun Devils want to punch teams in the mouth.
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I really like the Sun Devils, but I’m hesitant to take them without confirmation of Skattebo’s injury status. While he touched the ball 29 times against Kansas State, he was held to just 2.9 yards per carry and was held scoreless for just the second time this season.
With Skattebo at full strength, I think Arizona State is probably a 7-10-point favorite over the BYU of recent weeks. If he’s not 100%, I like where Vegas has set the line. While that’s exciting for my own read on the teams, it also means it’s hard to find an advantage here.
The advantage we might be able to find is in how we think BYU responds to a loss.
I personally think Kalani Sitake’s squad will respond well. I don’t think this is the case for an average team that will fall apart at the first loss. I actually think they might respond by playing a less stiff brand of football. In recent weeks the team has seemed to be so afraid of losing its perfect season that they haven’t played the way they played early in the year.
There’s a lot of projecting here. But I like Sitake’s ability to have his team ready after the loss. Personally, I think this will be an awesome, nail-biter of a game.
I may flip my prediction later in the week if we find out Skattebo is completely healthy. But as it stands, I think the Sun Devils can still win but might not cover, with the hook just past three.
There are better games for bettors this week, but there might not be many better games for college football fans. If you’re adamant about betting on this game, take the BYU spread and the under. If Skattebo is healthy, though, that could come back to bite you.
For now, it’s Arizona State by three.
Prediction: Arizona State 24, BYU 21
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