It’s a tough day to be a Tennessee Volunteers fan following the disappointing loss to the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 12. Not only did the loss bump the Vols down into a tie for second place at best in the SEC, it also lost the tiebreaker against the Bulldogs, all but eliminating Tennessee from SEC contention this season.
Let’s break that last bit down.
Tennessee’s SEC Championship Chances
At the very best, Tennessee can compete for the second spot via a tiebreaking scenario for the SEC Championship Game. However, one of the teams they’re competing against is the Bulldogs who just knocked off Tennessee.
That means, for Tennessee to win the tiebreaking scenarios, they’ll have to do it against someone other than Georgia as the first tiebreaker is head-to-head competition among all tied teams. By virtue of losing to the Bulldogs, Tennessee has a large disadvantage. However, their win over Alabama does weigh rather large here as Georgia lost to the Crimson Tide.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Because of all the unknown down the stretch, the CFN Football Playoff Meter gives the Vols just a 0.26% chance to make and win the SEC.
For Tennessee, they need to win against Vanderbilt to end the season with a 6-2 record in conference play and hope the tiebreakers break their way.
How Can Tennessee Make the SEC Championship Game?
How can the tiebreakers break the Vols’ way, you say? Well, first off, they need multiple teams tied with them at two losses in order to get by Georgia. That’s because the SEC tiebreaker scenarios state that the first tiebreaker is ‘head-to-head competition among the tied teams.’
And if all the teams are tied, it goes to a round robin scenario to find the second-place team in the SEC. For Tennessee, the loss to Georgia stings because Georgia is automatically one of the teams in second place in the majority of these scenarios. If somehow Georgia is the first-place team (Texas A&M and Texas would have to lose three of their last four combined games), then Tennessee has a better shot.
But right now, the likelihood is that Tennessee is compared to Georgia and Alabama and/or Ole Miss in the final tiebreaker scenarios. As there is no real round robin with these teams, the SEC tiebreakers state ‘if no team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, all the tied teams advance to the next step in the tiebreaker procedures.’
That then moves the tiebreaking scenario to No. 2, which is ‘record among common conference opponents.’ Those common opponents are slim, but we’ll get to them and the remaining tiebreakers when we need to.
Current SEC Standings
- 1) Texas Longhorns 9-1 (5-1)
- 2) Texas A&M Aggies 8-2 (5-1)
- 3) Georgia Bulldogs 8-2 (6-2)
- 4) Tennessee Volunteers 8-2 (5-2)
- 5) Alabama Crimson Tide 8-2 (4-2)
- 6) Ole Miss Rebels 8-2 (4-2)
- 7) South Carolina Gamecocks 7-3 (5-3)
- 8) Missouri Tigers 7-3 (3-3)
- 9) LSU Tigers 6-4 (3-3)
- 10) Vanderbilt Commodores 6-4 (3-3)
- 11) Arkansas Razorbacks 5-5 (3-4)
- 12) Florida Gators 5-5 (3-4)
- 13) Oklahoma Sooners 5-5 (1-5)
- 14) Auburn Tigers 4-6 (1-5)
- 15) Kentucky Wildcats 4-6 (1-6)
- 16) Mississippi State Bulldogs 2-8 (0-6)
Latest Tennessee Playoff Probability Following Week 12
As it stands right now, Tennessee’s chances to make the playoffs are 30.82%. That’s the simulation model giving the Vols the benefit of the doubt of being so highly ranked in the committee’s rankings so far.
Despite their loss to Georgia, Tennessee still sits at 8-2 and can finish at 10-2. Even if they miss out on the SEC Championship Game, it’s likely a two-loss SEC team is considered a lock for an at-large bid in the playoffs.
The next rankings from the playoff committee will tell everyone how they feel about two-loss SEC teams, but putting them just below the Bulldogs makes a ton of sense right now.
Volunteers’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Vols, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- vs. UTEP: 99.4%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 80.6%
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