The SEC Championship Game Scenarios have been updated following the Georgia Bulldogs victory over the Tennessee Volunteers. A five-way tie for second place is happening in front of our eyes, and we break down how that can happen below.
SEC Championship Game Odds
The Vegas lines will be out soon enough, but before we get their latest SEC Championship Odds after Week 12, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
We locked in the results from each game this weekend in the SEC, immediately following the final whistle in the Georgia-Tennessee classic. Then we simulated the SEC season over 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final two weeks of action in the process.
Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
SEC Championship Game Winning Probability
- Georgia 40.01%
- Texas 32.86%
- Texas A&M 15.56%
- Alabama 8.68%
- Ole Miss 2.49%
- Tennessee 0.40%
These numbers above are how many times each team made the SEC Championship Game, and subsequently won the SEC in the process. Any team not listed above never made it to the SEC Championship Game.
The current standings are below. Scroll just below those to find the road maps for every team in the hunt. Here’s how the table sits right now in the SEC.
Updated SEC Standings
- 1) Texas Longhorns 9-1 overall (5-1 SEC)
- 2) Texas A&M Aggies 8-2 (5-1)
- 3) Georgia Bulldogs 8-2 (6-2)
- 4) Tennessee Volunteers 8-2 (5-2)
- 5) Ole Miss Rebels 8-2 (4-2)
- 6) Alabama Crimson Tide 8-2 (4-2)
- 7) South Carolina Gamecocks 7-3 (6-3)
- 8) Missouri Tigers 7-3 (3-3)
- 9) LSU Tigers 6-4 (3-3)
- 10) Vanderbilt Commodores 6-4 (3-3)
- 11) Arkansas Razorbacks 5-5 (3-4)
- 12) Florida Gators 5-5 (3-4)
- 13) Oklahoma Sooners 5-5 (1-5)
- 14) Auburn Tigers 4-6 (1-5)
- 15) Kentucky Wildcats 4-6 (1-6)
- 16) Mississippi State Bulldogs 2-8 (0-6)
Texas’ SEC Championship Road Map
The Texas Longhorns now have a 32.86% chance to make the SEC Championship. That’s because they control their own destiny with games against Kentucky and Texas A&M left on their schedule.
Texas and Texas A&M remained as the only two teams with a single loss in conference play following the results of Week 12. This shapes up quite nicely to have the final game of the regular season mean quite literally everything for the SEC Championship Game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If Texas and A&M win out down the stretch, it pits the longtime rivals with identical 6-1 conference records squaring off against one another. But the biggest wrinkle now thrown in here is the fact that these two teams could hypothetically meet again in the SEC Championship Game if it were to go to a multi-team tiebreaker with Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Alabama.
More on that below, but for Texas, it’s simple: Win out, and you’re in the SEC Championship Game.
The CFN FPM makes the Longhorns a heavy favorite in each game, even on the road in College Station, in what appears to be an SEC eliminator
- vs. Kentucky: 94.4%
- @ Texas A&M: 61.9%
- Texas’ SEC Championship Winning Probability: 35.12%
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Road Map
The Aggies handled their business against New Mexico State in their final non-conference game of the season, playing well against an overmatched NMST team. Texas A&M played both quarterbacks but it was Marcel Reed’s throwing ability that stood out in the game against New Mexico State.
So, on to their road map to make the SEC Championship Game. Much like their in-state and long-time rival Texas, it’s win out and you’re in. Winning each of their remaining two games (Auburn, Texas) gives the Aggies an 7-1 record in conference play and knocks off Texas, the only remaining team with just one loss in SEC play this season.
It’s not quite as simple for all other teams, so we’ll save our breath for those teams below the two Texas-based programs.
CFN’s FPM gives the Aggies a chance to win out, or at the very least, finish with a 6-2 record in the SEC and at least a tie for second place.
- @ Auburn: 83.0%
- vs. Texas: 38.9%
- Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 15.56%
Alabama’s SEC Championship Road Map
A game against Mercer was never going to move our needle for the Crimson Tide in Week 12. They handled their business and got away from the Bears without any major injury. Next up is a trip to Norman before the Iron Bowl returns to Tuscaloosa.
For Alabama to make the SEC Championship Game, they’d need a handful of things to happen. First off, you can guarantee that either Texas or A&M are going to drop at least one of their final games. That puts the tiebreaking threshold to any team with two losses in SEC play.
And right now, we can finish with five teams at two losses in the SEC. The tiebreakers are clear as to what happens after that, so let’s break it down how ‘Bama can get in.
First up, this is if Alabama wins out, Ole Miss wins out, Georgia and Tennessee win out following their matchup, and it’s A&M taking the loss to Texas in the final regular season game for both.
The first tiebreaker is simply head-to-head record of tie teams. In this instance,
Tennessee beat Alabama but lost to Georgia, Georgia beat Tennessee but lost to Ole Miss and Alabama, Ole Miss beat Georgia, Alabama beat Georgia but lost to Tennessee, A&M only plays Texas and in this scenario it would be a loss.
- Alabama: 1-1
- Tennessee: 1-1
- Georgia: 1-2
- Ole Miss: 1-0
- Texas A&M: 1-0
If Texas were to lose to A&M, you just sub out the Longhorns for the Aggies above. However, Texas lost to Georgia, so it would be Ole Miss advancing to play A&M in that scenario. See below for the Rebels chances.
- @ Oklahoma: 81.1%
- vs. Auburn: 94.3%
- Alabama’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 8.68%
Ole Miss’ SEC Championship Road Map
So, if you’ve read this far, you’re a fan of the Ole Miss Rebels or you’re a fan of chaos. The Rebels have an ugly loss to Kentucky in SEC play this season and then a road loss to LSU. All that means is that they have to have some luck to get into the SEC Championship Game.
As we said last week, Ole Miss obviously has to win out. With their win against Georgia, they now own the head-to-head over a two-loss Bulldogs team. With Georgia defeating Tennessee and the inevitable A&M-Texas game pushing one of those teams to two losses in the conference, Ole Miss can sit pretty and wait for chaos to ensue.
Then, and only then, would we have a multitude of two-loss conference teams and then, and only then, would we be in a position to talk about Ole Miss’ SEC Championship berth.
As we outlined above, Ole Miss’ win against Georgia puts them in the proverbial driver’s seat if it were to come to a multi-team tie for second place. If A&M defeats Texas in the final game of the season, Ole Miss would be in.
If A&M loses, it goes to SEC tiebreaker No. 5 for Ole Miss and A&M, otherwise known as ‘capped relative scoring margin’ in SEC games, something Ole Miss also has the advantage in. It’s clear, though, win out, and hope for the chaos to continue following you.
- @ Florida: 93.4%
- vs. Mississippi State: 98.0%
- Ole Miss’ SEC Championship Winning Probability: 16.51%
Georgia’s SEC Championship Road Map
For the Bulldogs, things got real murky following their loss to Ole Miss a week ago. Now, with a win against Tennessee in Week 12, they’re guaranteed to at least go to tiebreakers for the second spot.
So what does that look like, and what tiebreakers can they win in order to get there?
That’s where the sim falls short as to not assume Georgia has any advantage there, because they don’t. Their loss to Ole Miss and ‘Bama zaps them from the head-to-head portion against those two. It also hurts their common opponent and record against highest-placed common opponents.
In actuality, the Bulldogs need these teams to lose another game in order to make the SEC Championship Game.
However, if they were to make the SEC Championship Game, they have the highest winning probability against any of these teams vying for that spot right now.
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 93.1%
- Georgia’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 5.62%
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.