The Colorado Buffaloes are two wins away from the Big 12 Championship Game and a chance to fight for their College Football Playoff appearance. They continue to control their destiny after defeating the Utah Utes in Week 12, further advancing their likelihood of making both postseason trips this year.
Colorado’s Big 12 Championship Chances
Entering the weekend, Colorado had a 57.58% chance to win out down the stretch. After defeating Utah, the Buffaloes now have a 61.80% chance to win their final two games of the 2024 season.
That would push Colorado to a 10-2 record and an 8-1 record in Big 12 play.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Doing just that would secure the Buffaloes chances to make both the Big 12 Championship and give them a real shot at making the College Football Playoffs with a win or a loss in the title game.
Entering the weekend, Colorado had a 43.61% chance to make the Big 12 Championship. After beating Utah, Colorado now has a 47.37% chance of making the Big 12 title game.
How Can Colorado Make the Big 12 Championship Game?
So, it’s simple for Colorado at this point. To make the Big 12 Championship Game: win out.
Defeat Kansas and Oklahoma State, and Colorado’s in. With a one-game advantage over Iowa State, Kansas State, Arizona State, and West Virginia, the Buffaloes continue to hold on to second place in the Big 12.
And things still look incredibly solid for the Buffs, even with a loss down the stretch. Right now, the Buffs are in win-out mode to secure their fate. Their chances get a bit dicier if they lose to either Kansas or Oklahoma State to end the season, because of how the tiebreakers are set to work.
However, if Colorado were to drop one of their final two games this season, the teams they’d be tied with are going to beat up on each other down the stretch.
Arizona State plays Kansas State in Week 12, automatically giving one of these two teams a third loss. Kansas State plays Iowa State to end the season, automatically giving one of these teams a third (or fourth) loss.
The dark horse in the Big 12 is currently West Virginia. The Mountaineers only lost to Iowa State and Kansas State, both who must essentially beat up on each other before the regular season is over. They only play Baylor, UCF, and Texas Tech to close out the year, and should/could be favorites to win each of those.
If Colorado is tied with West Virginia when the season is over, the tiebreaker would go down to head-to-head results (which they didn’t play) and then to common conference opponent winning percentage.
And right now, in this bold scenario, if Colorado were to lose to either Kansas or Oklahoma State, it would put WVU in the title game above them. That’s because West Virginia has already beat Kansas and Oklahoma State, and would give the Mountaineers the second tiebreaker over Colorado.
This, of course, looks at is as if Colorado would A) lose to Kansas or Oklahoma State, and B) have Arizona State, Iowa State, and Kansas State drop another game.
That’s why Colorado’s chances to make and win the Big 12 are so much higher than everyone else at this point, except BYU.
Current Big 12 Standings
- BYU Cougars: 6-0 (9-0 overall)
- Colorado Buffaloes: 6-1 (8-2)
- Iowa State Cyclones: 4-2 (7-2)
- Kansas State Wildcats: 4-2 (7-2)
- Arizona State Sun Devils: 4-2 (7-2)
- West Virginia Mountaineers: 4-2 (5-4)
- TCU Horned Frogs: 4-3 (6-4)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders: 4-3 (6-4)
- Baylor Bears: 3-3 (5-4)
- Cincinnati Bearcats: 3-3 (5-4)
- Houston Cougars: 3-4 (4-6)
- Kansas Jayhawks: 2-4 (3-6)
- UCF Knights: 2-5 (4-6)
- Arizona Wildcats: 2-5 (4-6)
- Utah Utes: 1-6 (4-6)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys: 0-7 (3-7)
Latest Colorado Playoff Probability Following Week 12
Entering Week 12, Colorado had a 16.71% chance of making the College Football Playoffs. After beating Utah, though, they’ve improved their chances to 20.07% to make the playoffs.
This includes their chances of winning the Big 12 but also making the Playoffs as an at-large team.
These numbers will continue to increase and not quite mimic their chances of making the Big 12 Championship game, but rather making the championship game and then subsequently winning the championship game.
There is a world in which Colorado makes the playoffs as an at-large team as well, but we’ll let the SEC teams beat up on themselves before we get too into the weeds there.
Buffaloes’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Buffaloes, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- @ Kansas: 73.4%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 84.2%
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.