The Clemson Tigers are still alive. For the ACC Championship and the College Football Playoffs. A win against the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 12 kept those slim chances alive.
After coming from behind to beat Pitt, here’s how Clemson’s chances increased for each scenario following Week 12’s results.
Clemson’s ACC Championship Chances
Entering the weekend, Clemson had a 20.66% chance of winning the ACC. They, of course, would need to beat Pitt in order to finish with a 7-1 record in conference play. Now that they’ve done that, Clemson’s chances of winning the ACC are now 26.44%.
With just two games left, Clemson now has a 65.03% chance of winning out, solely resting on what they do against South Carolina in the regular season finale.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Right now, the Tigers are projected by the CFN Football Playoff Meter to have the same ACC record as the Miami Hurricanes, but both will trail the SMU Mustangs. While Clemson and Miami haven’t played this year, in order to break this tie, the ACC tiebreaker scenarios are to be followed down to tiebreaker scenario No. 2.
And that’s where Clemson’s ACC hopes are dashed.
How Can Clemson Make the ACC Championship Game?
If both Miami and Clemson finish with a 7-1 record in ACC play, the Hurricanes will own the tiebreaker against the Tigers as Miami lost to Georgia Tech (who Clemson did not play) and Clemson lost to Louisville, who Miami defeated.
The winning percentage against common conference opponents gives Miami the edge over Clemson.
For Clemson to make the ACC Championship Game, they would need Miami to lose one of their final two games (vs. Wake Forest, @ Syracuse) or SMU to lose two of their final three games (vs. Boston College, @ Virginia, vs. Cal).
Current ACC Standings
- 1) SMU Mustangs: 5-0 (8-1 overall)
- 2) Clemson Tigers: 7-1 (8-2)
- 3) Miami Hurricanes: 5-1 (9-1)
- 4) Louisville Cardinals: 4-2 (6-3)
- 5) Pittsburgh Panthers: 3-3 (7-3)
- 6) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 4-3 (6-4)
- 7) Syracuse Orange: 3-3 (6-3)
- 8) Duke Blue Devils: 3-3 (7-3)
- 9) Virginia Cavaliers: 3-3 (5-4)
- 10) Virginia Tech Hokies: 3-3 (5-5)
- 11) Boston College Eagles: 2-3 (5-4)
- 12) North Carolina Tar Heels: 2-3 (5-4)
- 13) Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 2-3 (4-5)
- 14) NC State Wolfpack: 2-4 (5-5)
- 15) California Golden Bears: 1-4 (5-4)
- 16) Stanford Cardinal: 1-5 (2-7)
- 17) Florida State Seminoles: 1-7 (1-9)
Latest Clemson Playoff Probability Following Week 12
Now that the Tigers came from behind against Pitt and we’re three weeks away from the final College Football Playoff Rankings, each team’s chances are set to get a bit higher and improve with victories in terms of playoff probability. For Clemson, it’s looking more and more likely that they’ll have to enter the playoffs as an at-large team.
In order to do that, they have to win out and look convincing in doing so. The win against Pittsburgh wasn’t quite convincing, but they can worry about that as the chips fall as they will.
After beating Pitt, Clemson’s chances of making the College Football Playoffs moved from 16.51% to 21.99%.
Tigers’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Tigers, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- vs. The Citadel: 99.9%
- vs. South Carolina: 65.1%
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