Michigan State limps into Illinois at 4-5, carrying the weight of five losses in six games — a stretch punctuated by a crushing 47-10 defeat to Indiana on the Spartans’ home turf just two weeks ago. They arrive not just bruised but searching for answers.
Meanwhile, at 6-3, Illinois has seen its own stumble. Back-to-back losses to top-ranked Oregon and Minnesota might have rattled their momentum, but this team, now at 3-3 in Big Ten play, holds onto something Michigan State no longer can: the hope for a season that could still be special.
Michigan State vs. Illinois Betting Preview
All Michigan State vs. Illinois odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Illinois -7.5 - Spread
Illinois -3 - Moneyline
Michigan State +125, Illinois -130 - Over/Under
47.5 points - Game time
Saturday, Nov. 16, 2:30 p.m. ET - Location
Memorial Stadium | Champaign, Ill. - Predicted Weather at Kick
58 degrees, cloudy, 11 mph winds - How To Watch
FS1
This line opened with the Illini as three-point favorites and has floated anywhere from -3.5 to -2. With considerable action expected on this one, this number will likely continue to sway until kickoff on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total has seen a bit less action as it opened at 47.5 and briefly spiked to 48.5 before returning to the opening number, where it currently sits.
Michigan State’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s FPM, the Spartans have a 27% chance of defeating the Illini on Saturday. If the win probabilities hold, Michigan State would finish the season at 5-7. While some may see that as disappointing, this program was in turmoil when head coach Jonathan Smith took over for Mel Tucker.
- at Illinois: 27%
- vs. Purdue: 78.1%
- vs. Rutgers: 51.8%
Illinois’ Winning Probability
According to the FPM, Illinois has a 73% chance of defeating Michigan State on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Illinois would finish 2024 with a record of 9-3. This would be a massive step in the right direction for head coach Bret Bielema in his fourth season. Nine wins would be the most for Illinois football since 2007 under Ron Zook.
- vs. Michigan State: 73%
- at Rutgers: 55.6%
- at Northwestern: 75.3%
Prediction for Michigan State vs. Illinois
Michigan State and Illinois: In a season full of change in the conference, this is a classic Big Ten clash. These teams have crossed paths seven times since 2006, their latest meeting a hard-fought battle in 2022 where Michigan State stunned Illinois 23-15 as 16.5-point underdogs.
The Spartans started their season with a spark, winning three straight games, including a gritty Big Ten victory over Maryland. It was enough to make some wonder if this could be the year they’d reclaim some conference glory after a few down years. But since that early optimism, the story has shifted. Michigan State has lost five of their last six, with an offense that simply hasn’t been able to keep pace.
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Illinois, meanwhile, finds itself in a bowl-eligible spot, a testament to the strong start they built with wins over Michigan, Nebraska, and Kansas. Yet, recent losses before the bye raised concerns, making this week’s game a crucial chance to reset. The Fighting Illini, unbeaten when scoring at least 20 points, have shown that they’re hard to catch when they find the end zone.
Michigan State has allowed 23 or more points in each road game this season, and against Illinois’ defense, the Spartans will likely struggle to break that trend. If Illinois can force quarterback Aidan Chiles to throw, turnovers could follow, setting the stage for a solid defensive showing and a confident offensive bounce-back.
Michigan State isn’t built to survive turnovers and mistakes. Expect Illinois to cover the spread at home and get back on track.
Prediction: Illinois 27, Michigan State 16