The new era of the Big Ten continues to bring us conference matchups few could have imagined years ago. This Saturday, the Nebraska Cornhuskers meet the USC Trojans in Los Angeles — a game last played over a decade ago.
To start the 2024 campaign, these two storied programs were tabbed by many as sleepers to contend for a Big Ten title. Those talks have since died down as they’ve combined to lose seven of their last eight contests.
For the Cornhuskers (5-4, 2-4 Big Ten), one win separates them from bowl eligibility. The road to redemption is just as critical for the Trojans (4-5, 2-5), who need two more victories to keep postseason hopes alive. Fresh off a bye, Nebraska is making bold changes, with head coach Matt Rhule handing the reins of the offense to Dana Holgorsen in a move announced just this Monday.
On the other sideline, USC arrives battered, having dropped four of its last five games, including a tough loss to Washington. They, too, come off a bye, with a chance to regroup and find the rhythm that once made them a powerhouse.
Two teams, each at a crossroads, each with a season hanging in the balance. For Nebraska, it’s about reaching a bowl; for USC, it’s about salvaging what remains of a once-promising campaign.
Our Nebraska vs. USC prediction explores who can get back on track in Week 12.
Nebraska vs. USC Betting Preview
All Nebraska vs. USC odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
USC -2 - Spread
USC -8.5 - Moneyline
Nebraska +265, USC -330 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game time
Saturday, Nov. 16, 4 p.m. ET - Location
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Los Angeles, CA - Predicted Weather at Kick
64 degrees, clear, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
FOX
The spread in this one has floated between -8.5 and -9.5 to the Trojans but currently sits at the opening number of -8.5. The total has also seen minimal movement as it has dropped just a point from the opening number of 51.5 to 50.5.
Nebraska’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Power Metric, the Cornhuskers have a 47.2% chance of defeating the Trojans on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Nebraska will earn bowl eligibility for the first time since 2016, when they finished 9-4 under Mike Riley, eventually falling in the Music City Bowl to Tennessee, led by quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
- at USC: 47.2%
- vs. Wisconsin: 55.6%
- at Iowa: 44.4%
USC’s Winning Probability
According to the FPM, USC has a 52.8% chance of defeating Nebraska on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Trojans would narrowly earn bowl eligibility for the third time in four seasons under Lincoln Riley, returning to the postseason after failing to make a bowl last season at 4-5.
Regardless of how 2024 plays out in Southern California, it feels that Riley’s seat is getting warmer by the week.
- vs. Nebraska: 52.8%
- at UCLA: 50.6%
- vs. Notre Dame: 26.6%
Prediction for Nebraska vs. USC
This season, Nebraska’s offense has struggled to find consistency, averaging just 354.1 yards and 23.6 points per game.
The heart of its offense is quarterback Dylan Raiola, who’s passed for 1,921 yards with 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions on a 64.7% completion rate. Isaiah Neyor leads a balanced receiving corps with 408 yards and five touchdowns, while Dante Dowdell heads the ground game with 471 yards and eight scores.
This week marks a new chapter for the Cornhuskers, as Holgorsen steps in as the play-caller — a shift they hope will re-energize their offense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Defensively, Nebraska has been a steady force, allowing 308.1 total yards and just 19.1 points per game. They’re particularly strong against the run, giving up only 102.6 yards per game, but face a formidable test in USC’s offense.
The Trojans are expected to start Jayden Maiava at quarterback, with Riley benching Miller Moss in favor of the former UNLV star. Maiava brings experience and big-play potential, tallying 3,085 yards and 17 touchdowns last season with the Rebels. Makai Lemon, meanwhile, leads the Trojans’ receiving corps with 448 yards and three touchdowns, a reliable target for Maiava.
But it’s challenging to back USC at this point, especially as a favorite by more than a touchdown. With USC favored by a large margin, Nebraska’s resilience may prove them worthy of the cover.
Prediction: USC 24, Nebraska 20
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