The San Diego State Aztecs are not only riding a four-game win streak over the UNLV Rebels, but they own a 23-9 all-time lead in the series. However, this isn’t the Rebels of old, as head coach Barry Odom has the program en route to back-to-back bowl games for the first time … ever.
Our San Diego State vs. UNLV preview dives into the showdown, offering key betting insights to guide your picks.
San Diego State vs. UNLV Betting Preview
All San Diego State vs. UNLV odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -14.5 - Spread
UNLV -20.5 - Moneyline
UNLV -1450, San Diego State +850 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
Allegiant Stadium | Las Vegas - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, 7 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
CBSSN
While SDSU is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games, the program is only 1-4 ATS in the previous five meetings with UNLV. That said, as good as the Rebels have been this season, they are only 1-4 ATS in their past five matchups.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The 54.5-point total may seem high to some, but the over is still firmly in play with how these two squads have performed this year:
- The over has cashed in four of SDSU’s last five Mountain West contests.
- The over has cashed in eight of UNLV’s last 12 games overall.
San Diego State’s Winning Probability
The Aztecs’ bowl aspirations are technically still on life support, but one more loss would pull the plug entirely. Assuming San Diego State does drop one of their final three games, it would mark the third straight year without a bowl appearance — the team’s longest drought since 1999-2009.
- at UNLV: 13.2%
- at Utah State: 49.6%
- vs. Air Force: 54.3%
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The Rebels only have one double-digit campaign in program history (11-2 in 1984). If they win out this season, which they are favored to do, they’ll make it two.
- vs. San Diego State: 86.8%
- at San Jose State: 75.3%
- vs. Nevada: 88.6%
Prediction for San Diego State vs. UNLV
The Aztecs just faced the similarly talented Boise State Broncos a couple of games ago and were blown out of Albertsons Stadium 56-24. Don’t expect a different result in Week 12.
The Rebels are eighth in run rate (63.5%) and are tied for 17th in yards per rush attempt (5.3). That’s not great for an SDSU run defense ranked 110th in EPA and 85th in success rate.
While both programs allow over two sacks per game (UNLV 2.22, SDSU 2.44) and are top-15 units in sacks generated per game (UNLV 3.11, t-11th; SDSU 3.22, 6th), Rebels QB Hajj-Malik Williams is a veteran with the legs to escape pressure, while Aztecs signal-caller Danny O’Neill is a true freshman protected by two pressure-leaky offensive tackles.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
There’s also the matter of UNLV’s incredible ability to block punts (nation-leading five on the year), San Diego State’s propensity to commit penalties (82, fourth most in the nation), and the Rebels’ vast lead in turnover margin (+12 to SDSU’s +2).
Expect the Rebels to keep their foot on the pedal with only three games remaining, winning and covering the near three-TD spread.
Prediction: UNLV 37, San Diego State 13
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