San Jose State Spartans fans are used to seeing their team lose to the Boise State Broncos, with the latter owning a 15-1 all-time series advantage. Unfortunately, there won’t be a reprieve in 2024.
Our Boise State vs. San Jose State prediction dives into the details, providing key betting insights to help you make smarter wagers.
Boise State vs. San Jose State Betting Preview
All Boise State vs. San Jose State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boise State -15 - Spread
Boise State -13.5 - Moneyline
Boise State -520, San Jose State +390 - Over/Under
61.5 points - Game Time
7:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
CEFCU Stadium | San Jose, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
57 degrees, 7 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
CBSSN
These teams are on contrasting trajectories in 2024. While Boise State is 4-1-1 against the spread in recent outings, SJSU is 1-4 ATS.
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Different trend, same story when it comes to the total:
- The over has hit in nine of the Broncos’ last 12 games.
- The under has hit in four of the Spartans’ last five.
Boise State’s Winning Probability
The Broncos booked their bowl ticket two games ago, but they don’t care about that. At 8-1, with their only loss coming against the Oregon Ducks, they have a legitimate shot at the expanded College Football Playoff.
Assuming they win out — the FPM gives them 85% or higher win probabilities in each of the final three contests — Ashton Jeanty and Co. will be one game away (the conference title) from securing their first-ever CFP berth.
- at San Jose State: 87.2%
- at Wyoming: 94.4%
- vs. Oregon State: 85.9%
San Jose State’s Winning Probability
The Spartans earned their third consecutive bowl bid by defeating the Oregon State Beavers last week, but they aren’t out of the Mountain West Championship race just yet. They are 3-2 in the conference, but a loss to Boise State would be the nail in the coffin.
- vs. Boise State: 12.8%
- vs. UNLV: 24.7%
- vs. Stanford: 52.5%
Prediction for Boise State vs. San Jose State
The Broncos are nearly two-touchdown favorites over the Spartans, and it’s likely not enough. They’ve scored 28 points in every game this season — SJSU hasn’t done so since Oct. 5 (35 against the Nevada Wolf Pack). It’s also a great matchup for the boys in blue.
The Spartans are the most pass-happy offense in the nation, throwing the ball on 64.7% of their plays. More dropbacks equals more opportunities for sacks, and the Broncos are second in the country in sacks generated per game (4.44).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
More than that, the Spartans are just 72nd in third-down conversion rate (39.8%), and the Broncos are excellent at forcing third downs, ranking 15th in early down EPA.
Offensively, Boise State — and Heisman-worthy RB Ashton Jeanty, in particular — should have its way in this one, with SJSU sitting at 105 in defensive EPA and 86th in defensive success rate against the run.
Take the Broncos to win and cover, but don’t count on the Spartans to score enough to push the game over the total.
Prediction: Boise State 38, San Jose State 17
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