Week 12 in the Big 12 brings together two teams who have completely flipped the script on preseason expectations. There was great anticipation around the Kansas Jayhawks before the season began, but it’s the BYU Cougars who have exceeded expectations as their barrel toward a place in the postseason.
Who wins on Saturday night? Our Kansas vs. BYU prediction covers it all—from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Kansas vs. BYU Betting Preview
All Kansas vs. BYU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
BYU -15 - Spread
BYU -3.5 - Moneyline
BYU -170, Kansas +142 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 10:15 p.m. ET - Location
LaVell Edwards Stadium | Provo, Utah - Predicted Weather at Kick
34 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Vegas continues to fade BYU, as the Cougars have been more than a touchdown favorite over just two FBS opponents this year. Yet, the Cougars are 7-2 against the spread. Kansas, on the other hand, has covered in three straight after starting 0-6 against the spread.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 55.5 points and a spread of 3.5 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 29-26 in favor of the Cougars.
Kansas’ Winning Probability
Despite their recent success, Kansas has a 12.2% chance of beating BYU on Saturday night. Despite recent success, a difficult season against high expectations has resulted in the Jayhawks being a significant underdog in this Big 12 battle.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Kansas in the 2024 season:
- at BYU: 12.2%
- vs. Colorado: 26.6%
- at Baylor: 35.9%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Kansas would end the year with a 3-9 record, including a 2-7 Big 12 campaign. After gaining bowl eligibility the last two seasons, that would be a significant disappointment and setback for Lance Leipold’s team.
BYU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, BYU has an 87.8% chance of beating the Jayhawks at home. According to our metric, the Cougars have been favored in every game of their undefeated season so far. That said, the CFN FPM had the Big 12 frontrunner as a substantial favorite on the road at Utah in a game that was closer than projected.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for BYU in the 2024 season:
- vs. Kansas: 87.8%
- at Arizona State: 65.7%
- vs. Houston: 91.1%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Cougars would be an undefeated 12-0 in just their second season in the Big 12, a remarkable accomplishment. They’re the favorite to book a spot in the conference title game while having an 89.8% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff.
Prediction for Kansas vs. BYU
It’s been too little far too late for Kansas, as the Jayhawks limped out to a 1-5 start before finally figuring things out against Houston and playing rival Kansas State to a near win.
Then the Jayhawks dismantled Iowa State to prove their recent form isn’t just a fluke.
But can they beat the Cougars? Once again, Vegas thinks BYU could go down. So far, in these spots, the Cougars have passed.
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I don’t plan on being the person who’s “first” to predict BYU’s downfall. Sure, there’s an element of luck involved in winning close games, but there’s also a skill and culture that allows the Cougars to never be truly out of any game.
I think the Cougars were a bit caught off-guard against Utah, as Kyle Whittingham and the Utes rolled with a brand-new starter at quarterback. The Cougars went into halftime down 21-10 before battling back for a last-second field goal to win it.
There was certainly an element of luck to how it went down, but good teams put themselves in the position to win.
You could talk me into a Kansas upset here, but I’m sticking with the Cougars. While Utah took away BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s legs, I think the Cougars will figure out how to get him on the move where he’s most comfortable.
I see this Jayhawks front as one the Cougars can run on and control the clock like they want to do.
Two of the last three opponents have surprised BYU with something the Cougars weren’t ready for. I don’t think Kansas has enough up its sleeve (or a backup quarterback worth starting out of nowhere) to do that to the Cougars.
Take the Cougars and the points as they pull away late like they have so many times this year. Vegas may try to tell you that the Cougars aren’t as good as the record says, but Vegas has also been wrong about BYU all season.
I think BYU wants to score a lot in this one after a few sluggish offensive performances, pushing it over. Kansas will hit a big play or two, but the Cougars can force Jalon Daniels into some bad throws and find success in all three phases
Prediction: BYU 35, Kansas 27
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