The Tennessee Volunteers (and the College GameDay crew) travel to Athens in Week 12 to take on the Georgia Bulldogs in a game with significant SEC and College Football Playoff consequences. After Kirby Smart’s team fell outside of the latest 12-team CFP bracket, is a changing of the guard upon us?
Our Tennessee vs. Georgia prediction covers every element of the biggest game this week—from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Tennessee vs. Georgia Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Georgia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia -4 - Spread
Georgia -10 - Moneyline
Georgia -375, Tennessee +295 - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Sanford Stadium | Athens, GA - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, clear, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
If you want a graphic demonstration of how seismic a Tennessee win in Week 12 would be, take one look at the history of this all-SEC clash. While the 28-23-2 advantage the Bulldogs hold heading into the 54th edition might seem slender, Georgia is on a seven-game winning streak. The Volunteers haven’t won in Athens since 2016 but could end that run on Saturday night.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The oddsmakers have Kirby Smart’s team as a 10-point favorite, likely buoyed by uncertainty around Tennessee starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The CFN FPM makes the game tighter, and our prediction goes one step further in examining what the Vols could accomplish in Week 12. Georgia is just 2-7 against the spread this season. Tennessee is 5-4 ATS in 2024.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Volunteers are in the driver’s seat to make the College Football Playoff. Tennessee has a 38.1% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making it the hardest remaining game of the year for the Volunteers, who would likely make the SEC title game by winning out.
- at Georgia: 38.1%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.6%
Georgia’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Georgia has a 61.9% chance of beating the Volunteers at home. The Bulldogs’ path to the College Football Playoff got a bit more difficult after a loss to Ole Miss on Saturday
- vs. Tennessee: 61.9%
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 82.1%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Georgia
I won’t bury the lede: The Georgia Bulldogs are not 10 points better than the Tennessee Volunteers, and the only question I have is whether I’m going to sprinkle the moneyline for the road underdogs.
Take the G off of Georgia’s helmet, and you’ll see a team that has played one solid game all season. Sure, the Bulldogs have the talent to outlast other teams, but they haven’t looked particularly strong outside of a great game against Texas.
If Georgia’s defensive line puts on a similar display to that game on Saturday, the Bulldogs can cover. But I really like the Volunteers’ running game and think they can stay out of obvious passing situations, unlike Texas.
It’s taken us a while to come around to the reality of a power-running, defensive-minded Tennessee team, but that’s what this group is. I think the Volunteers’ defensive line is good enough to generate a lot of pressure against the Bulldogs.
If that’s the case, it’s a blowout. Over the past three weeks, Carson Beck has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the history of major college football against pressure.
In his last three games, Beck hasn’t been pressured all that often, just 37 times in 125 dropbacks, but it’s what he’s done on those 37 pressures that cause concern. Beck has just eight completions with seven sacks and five interceptions. That’s good for a passer rating of 0.0.
Unless he completely turns it around, or Tennessee somehow doesn’t pressure the quarterback, the Georgia offense could be in trouble.
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I’ll gladly admit I was wrong if one of those things happens, but I don’t see it. Instead, I think Tennessee pressures him and forces Beck into mistakes.
Tennessee can control the clock when on offense, so a few drive-enders would go a long way toward the upset.
Nico Iamaleava’s injury status could change this, but if we take Josh Heupel at his word, Tennessee’s quarterback will be just fine. If he can hit a deep ball or two, the Volunteers should win this game.
It’s hard to bet against Kirby Smart, especially when he can draw upon the perceived disrespect of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, but I don’t think he has one of his stronger teams this year, even if that doesn’t make sense on paper.
Let’s call it an upset. Tennessee controls the clock and forces a few Georgia turnovers in a low-scoring road win.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Georgia 20
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