It certainly hasn’t been the start that Hugh Freeze wanted in Year Two with the Auburn Tigers. Sitting at 3-6 heading into Week 12, the team has to win out to make a bowl game. But if Auburn loses to the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, Freeze will be more worried about his job than a strong finish to the season.
Louisiana-Monroe is looking for just its second-ever bowl bid, and to do it against an SEC foe would be incredible for the program. Can the Warhawks pull off the upset? Find out what we think in this Louisiana-Monroe vs. Auburn prediction.
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Auburn Betting Preview
All Louisiana-Monroe vs. Auburn odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Auburn -10 - Spread
Auburn -24 - Moneyline
Auburn -2800, Louisiana-Monroe +1300 - Over/Under
46 points - Game Time
12:45 p.m. ET - Location
Jordan-Hare Stadium | Auburn, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
65 degrees, sunny, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Auburn definitely needs a good showing on Saturday. It’s not just a loss that could doom Freeze, but a too-close-for-comfort win could also hurt his future chances. That being said, this is a big line to cover against a competent team, and it suggests Vegas thinks little of the ULM offense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With an over/under set at 46 and a 24-point spread, Vegas projects a final score around 35-11 in Auburn’s favor.
Louisiana-Monroe’s Winning Probability
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter is much closer than the Vegas line suggests, making the Warhawks 10-point underdogs. Their winning probability in this game is 22.6%, the Warhawks’ lowest remaining winning probability of the season.
- at Auburn: 22.6%
- at Arkansas State: 49.2%
- vs. Louisiana: 25.1%
Auburn’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Auburn has a 77.4% chance of beating the Warhawks at home. The Tigers won’t be happy with four wins, but since the last two are against SEC powers, they’d be wise to collect a win against ULM.
- vs. Louisiana-Monroe: 77.4%
- vs. Texas A&M: 17%
- at Alabama: 5.9%
Prediction for Louisiana-Monroe vs. Auburn
This is an intriguing matchup with several storylines on both sides. If you like offense, turn the channel and don’t waste your time, as the quarterback play in this one will be below average at best. Payton Thorne has been serviceable at times this season, and Auburn’s offensive struggles have certainly extended beyond him.
But the numbers are the numbers, and Auburn’s offensive numbers are ugly. The Tigers move the ball well (44th in yards per play) but can’t score. That’s partly due to the country’s fourth-worst red zone offense.
But the Warhawk offense has been only slightly better, not even accounting for their strength of schedule. The Warhawks are excellent in the red zone, as they’re 125th in yards per game.
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Auburn should win this game. If Freeze is smart, he’ll run Jarquez Hunter repeatedly, as the ULM rushing defense isn’t great. The Tigers should be able to impose their will. If not, there are serious issues on the Plains.
The Tigers should be better in this one, but can they cover?
I think this is a game in which Freeze will try to inflate his team’s offensive numbers. I’m a fan of the ULM defense, but there’s only so much a team can do when an SEC offensive line goes at them every play.
I think Auburn will cover if Freeze tries to run up the score, but no result would surprise me here. Especially if the ULM defense can get some pass rush, the Tigers won’t coast to victory.
Ultimately, I think Auburn prevails in a score that looks more lopsided than the run of play suggests, but that doesn’t mean Tigers fans will feel great. It’ll be a defense-first game, and I think Freeze will go for the shutout.
If you’re betting here, go with the under. But don’t let this result fool you into thinking Auburn is a good team.
Prediction: Auburn 31, Louisiana-Monroe 10
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