On Friday night, the Arizona Wildcats and Houston Cougars meet under the lights at Arizona Stadium, each team reaching for the hope that a late-season spark could turn things around heading into next season.
Arizona comes into this matchup at 3-6, reeling from a brutal 56-12 loss to UCF, a game in which its defense was stretched and the offense struggled to find rhythm. For the Cougars, a 24-19 victory over Kansas State last week offers a glimpse of promise in an otherwise uneven season that stands at 4-5.
The history between these two Big 12 teams tilts slightly in Arizona’s favor, with the Wildcats holding a 2-1 edge over Houston in their last three meetings. But on a November night, past records fade, and what truly matters is how these teams respond to the present moment.
Can Arizona bounce back and defend its home field, or will Houston ride the momentum of last week’s victory and find a way to build a winning streak? Our Houston vs. Arizona prediction breaks down this Friday night Big 12 matchup.
Houston vs. Arizona Betting Preview
All Houston vs. Arizona odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arizona -5 - Spread
Arizona -1.5 - Moneyline
Houston +105, Arizona -120 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game time
10:15 p.m. ET - Location
Arizona Stadium | Tucson, AZ - Predicted Weather at Kick
61 degrees, mostly cloudy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
FS1
The Wildcats originally opened as -3.5 point favorites, but that number has fallen to -1.5 and could very well continue to fall before kickoff on Friday night. The total opened at 42.5 and has jumped slightly to 44.5.
The moneyline has mimicked the spread as Arizona opened as a -155 favorite and has seen that number drop to -120.
Houston’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Power Metric, Houston has a 35.9% chance of defeating Arizona on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Houston is tabbed to drop its final three contests of 2024, bringing the Cougars to 4-8 on the year. The reality is that they have been one of the most volatile and complex squads in the country to predict this season.
In a five-game stretch this season, Houston nearly beat Oklahoma on the road. Then, they were blown out at Cincinnati 34-0 and then went on the road to beat TCU 30-19.
More recently, they were dominated at Kansas and then picked up back-to-back wins over Utah and Kansas State.
- at Arizona: 35.9%
- vs. Baylor: 39.4%
- at BYU: 8.9%
Arizona’s Winning Probability
According to the FPM, Arizona has a 64.1% chance of defeating Houston on Friday night.
If the win probabilities hold, Arizona is slated to finish 4-8, dropping its final two contests of 2024. This would be the Wildcats’ worst finish since the 2021 season and a massive dropoff from last year’s 10-win campaign under Jedd Fisch, culminating in an Alamo Bowl victory.
- vs. Houston: 64.1%
- vs. TCU: 31.2%
- at Arizona State: 45.7%
Prediction for Houston vs. Arizona
Admittedly, these are two of the more difficult teams in the country to predict as they compete in one of the most volatile conferences in college football this season.
As Houston heads to Arizona this Friday, they bring a modest record against the spread, having covered five times in nine games. Meanwhile, Arizona’s year has been a struggle, with just one win against the spread.
The Wildcats have leaned heavily on their passing game, with quarterback Noah Fifita throwing for 2,324 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. But their defense has faltered, allowing over 31 points per game, a stat that loomed large in their recent 56-12 defeat to UCF, where they surrendered 406 total yards.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
On the Houston side, quarterback Zeon Chriss has been efficient, going 11 for 11 against Kansas State for 103 yards and a touchdown while adding 75 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Despite ranking third-worst in the FBS offensively with just 15.2 points per game, the Cougars have found steadiness on defense, giving up a respectable 22 ppg.
Arizona’s defensive woes extend to both the air and the ground, with opponents averaging 173 rushing yards and 223 passing yards per game. This creates a significant mismatch, as Houston’s offense may find its footing against the Wildcats’ vulnerable defense.
Though the Wildcats average 22.1 points per game, they’ve struggled to control the tempo or stay competitive, covering the spread only once this season.
For Houston, even on the road, this matchup offers a chance to exploit Arizona’s weaknesses. The spread favors the Cougars, and the Wildcats’ track record doesn’t suggest they’ll cover. This looks like a week where Houston can find its rhythm on offense.
Prediction: Houston 24, Arizona 20
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