While the Missouri Tigers are the higher-ranked team, it’s the South Carolina Gamecocks with the momentum and who are favored by nearly two touchdowns. However, South Carolina hasn’t beaten Missouri since 2018.
Can the Gamecocks continue their hot streak and add another valuable win to a potential dark-horse College Football Playoff campaign? Find out what we think in our Missouri vs. South Carolina prediction.
Missouri vs. South Carolina Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. South Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
South Carolina -2 - Spread
South Carolina -12.5 - Moneyline
South Carolina -500, Missouri +380 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 4:15 p.m. ET - Location
Williams-Brice Stadium | Columbia, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
This line is indicative of both Missouri’s struggles on the road this season and the quarterback situation, as Eli Drinkwitz announced early Monday that Drew Pyne would once again start behind center.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 44.5 points and a spread of 12.5, Vegas has little faith in Missouri’s offense, implying a final score close to 28-16 in favor of South Carolina.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter isn’t quite as low on Missouri this weekend as Vegas, as the metric trusts the Tigers’ ability to win close games this year. They’ll have a 47.2% chance to win, per the metric. This represents their hardest remaining game, as they’ll finish an extremely easy SEC slate with two struggling teams.
- at South Carolina: 47.2%
- at Mississippi State: 87.4%
- vs. Arkansas: 67.7%
South Carolina’s Winning Probability
Conversely, South Carolina has a 52.8% chance of beating Missouri at home. FPM has undervalued the Gamecocks all year, but if they win Saturday, they’ll be lurking near the top 15 with a rivalry game at Clemson looming.
- vs. Missouri: 47.2%
- vs. Wofford: 99.9%
- at Clemson: 34.9%
Prediction for Missouri vs. South Carolina
Speaking as a South Carolina graduate, this game worries the Gamecocks fan base for two reasons. First, Drinkwitz has owned the Gamecocks, especially with his defense. Second, USC fans have a nagging feeling that this could be another blowout win.
Basically, when the team is playing well, it’s difficult for Gamecocks fans to enjoy the ride because they’re always awaiting a letdown.
That’s not happening, and here’s why.
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Let me first acknowledge that our FPM is extremely accurate, but South Carolina has been undervalued by the metric all season. I’ve correctly picked against FPM when it had the Gamecocks as underdogs to Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt.
The reason is that this team has evolved. Earlier in the season, Shane Beamer knew he had a good team but wasn’t coaching with the confidence expected from a team with the talent to line up and win the game.
He’s stopped the tricks, fakes, and surprises. Instead, the Gamecocks have an identity. They’re lining up and going straight at the opposition on both offense and defense with a “Go ahead and try to stop us” attitude.
South Carolina has a top-five defense in the country, and the defensive line might be the best in college football. In other words, the Gamecocks are an extremely talented team.
That’s not good news for a Tigers team that has had the easiest schedule in the SEC and has done its damage against bad teams.
Missouri has played just two games against teams ranked in the top 25 of SP+, even though over half of the conference resides in that part of the rankings. The Tigers are 7-0 against teams outside of that range, winning their three non-Power Four games by a combined score of 134-3.
Outside of those games, the Tigers haven’t been particularly convincing. They’ve gone 4-0 against their average or below-average Power Four opponents, winning by an average of five points against the mid-tier opponents they’ve faced. All four of those opponents have scoring offenses ranked outside of the top 75, and they were all played at home. In fact, Missouri has only played away from Faurot Field three times.
When the Tigers have played quality teams, they haven’t been remotely competitive, losing by a combined score of 75-10. Missouri, as of now, is a paper tiger propped up by an extremely easy schedule and some luck.
South Carolina is the third quality team the Tigers will face on the road, and I truly don’t expect the result to be any different.
There’s a caveat here and its recent history. The Tigers have owned the Gamecocks since Drinkwitz got there. USC has dropped five straight games to the Tigers, including Missouri’s biggest win in the series last year. The Gamecocks have scored more than 14 points just once in that stretch.
But I think this year is different. South Carolina should dominate both lines of scrimmage, and the newfound power-rushing identity and growth of LaNorris Sellers are hard to ignore.
We’ll know more when the injury report comes out, but Brady Cook could be out again for Missouri. Even if he does play, he won’t be 100%.
South Carolina has found its rhythm offensively, and I’m trusting the proven team over the one that has stumbled and embarrassed itself in big games. Beamer wants this one…badly. And if the Gamecocks are up big, he won’t call off the dogs.
Take the hot team and the points and lean over, as South Carolina could pour it on late.
Gamecocks in a blowout.
Prediction: South Carolina 37, Missouri 13
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