Ah yes, the ACC powerhouse SMU Mustangs. Just as we all expected. The Mustangs are the only remaining undefeated team in the ACC in their inaugural year in a power conference. They are tantalizingly close to an ACC Championship Game berth, with only a few more hurdles to clear.
Standing in the way on Saturday are the Boston College Eagles. Can Bill O’Brien’s squad make its mark on the ACC title race? Find out which way we lean in this Boston College vs. SMU prediction.
Clemson vs. Pittsburgh Betting Preview
All Clemson vs. Pittsburgh odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -11.5 - Spread
SMU -14.5 - Moneyline
SMU -675, Boston College +490 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Gerald J. Ford Stadium | Dallas - Predicted Weather at Kick
74 degrees, sunny, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
SMU has been a revelation this season, losing only to the undefeated BYU Cougars early in the year before figuring out the quarterback situation. Since Kevin Jennings has assumed full-time quarterback duties, they’ve been fantastic. Boston College has had a roller coaster of a first year under O’Brien, but the signs for the future are positive.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 53.5 points and a spread of 14.5 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 34-20 in favor of the Mustangs.
Boston College’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Eagles have a 19.4% chance of winning on Saturday. Needing two more wins for bowl eligibility, the Eagles have two winnable but not easy games to end the year.
- at SMU: 19.4%
- vs. North Carolina: 66.4%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 48.2%
SMU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, SMU has an 80.6% chance of beating the Eagles at home. The formula is simple: keep winning. While the Mustangs could likely afford a single slip-up while still making the ACC Championship Game, a regular season loss would hurt their chances of an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff, if they were to lose again in the championship.
- vs. Boston College: 80.6%
- at Virginia: 73%
- at California: 74.9%
Prediction for Boston College vs. SMU
SMU’s recipe for success, outside of the win against Pittsburgh, has not been to blow teams out of the water early and coast to a blowout win. Instead, the Mustangs have outlasted a lot of their opponents, using their depth and the variety of ways they succeed on offense to win late in games.
Boston College, on the other hand, hasn’t really been blown out by anybody. In fact, only two FBS games involving the Eagles have finished with a margin greater than 10 points. Those were both stand-alone prime-time games, with the Eagles falling on either side of the result.
The Eagles just love playing close games, winning their fair share of tight ones.
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While I don’t see the Eagles creating ACC chaos with a win, there’s a path to keeping it close, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this as a one-score game in the fourth quarter. Thomas Castellanos has grown as a passer this season, and the Eagles can really run the ball. When they get it going on the ground, they’re tough to stop.
That being said, SMU is excellent at preventing both the big play and limiting teams in the red zone; I ultimately think that’s the difference, but I cannot take a team that doesn’t typically win big to cover against a team that doesn’t get blown out. The Eagles will keep it close, but SMU should win in all the areas where it matters.
I think the close, back-and-forth nature of the game pushes this over in a close win that is more comfortable than the scoreline shows.
Prediction: SMU 35, Boston College 26
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