One of the first things that stood out about the new SEC was just how brutal some of the schedules were shaping up to be.
The biggest loser in 2024? That has to be the Florida Gators, staring down one of the toughest closing stretches in college football history.
Even if a couple of teams on the back end haven’t lived up to expectations, the LSU Tigers remain a massive challenge. Can the Gators right the ship against a Tigers squad also trying to recover from a blowout loss? Dive into our LSU vs. Florida prediction to find out.
LSU vs. Florida Betting Preview
All LSU vs. Florida odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
LSU -15 - Spread
LSU -4 - Moneyline
LSU -175, Florida +145 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium | Gainesville, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
72 degrees, partly cloudy, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Both Florida and LSU are coming off of blowout losses in their respective ABC national broadcast games last week, each losing by more than four touchdowns to current College Football Playoff teams.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a spread of 4 points and a total of 55, Vegas expects a decent game. The line also seems to imply DJ Lagway could be back for the Gators because the offense is lost without him. The spread and total imply a final score close to 29-25 in favor of the Tigers.
LSU’s Winning Probability
While the Tigers struggled on Saturday, CFN’s Football Playoff Meter doesn’t expect them to struggle against the Gators. LSU has an 87.4% chance to win in Gainesville, per the metric, one of three relatively easy games remaining for the Tigers.
- at Florida: 87.4%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 75.5%
- vs. Oklahoma: 82.6%
Florida’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Florida has a 12.6% chance of beating LSU at home, which translates to a spread of about 15 points. Needing two wins for bowl eligibility, the Gators will need to pull off an upset before beating rival Florida State to make it to the postseason.
- vs. LSU: 12.6%
- vs. Ole Miss: 7.1%
- at Florida State: 57.4%
Prediction for LSU vs. Florida
Every preview for this game highlights Lagway’s health — and for good reason. As we’ve seen, the Gators’ offense has been a shell of itself without him.
That’s not to say Florida hasn’t faced tougher defenses than what they’ll see Saturday. But without Lagway’s big arm and mobility, the Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs simply stacked the box against backup Aidan Warner, daring him to make plays through the air.
If Lagway suits up, though, his ability to push the ball downfield could exploit an LSU defense that’s struggled to prevent big plays all season.
While the Tigers have improved their havoc rate and overall consistency from last year, they still allow more explosive plays than anyone else in the SEC.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
The game likely hinges on LSU’s ability to prevent Florida from hitting a few chunk plays. Without Lagway (and maybe even with him), the Gators haven’t shown they can sustain drives.
But the betting line here — just 5.5 points — suggests Lagway might be in the lineup. That said, hamstring injuries are tricky, and even if he plays, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be 100%.
With a healthy Lagway, this has the potential to be a fantastic matchup. Without his pocket mobility, though, LSU’s defense could deliver one of its best performances of the season.
On offense, the Tigers were forced to take chances to try to rally against Alabama. Against Florida, they should find more balance and string together long drives. If Garrett Nussmeier gets time to throw, he should have no problem carving up this vulnerable secondary.
In the end, I see LSU winning comfortably. Florida’s offense, even if Lagway plays, may not be able to keep up. Take LSU and the under — the Gators aren’t likely to hold up their end of the scoring.
Prediction: LSU 29, Florida 17
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.