Take everything you think you learned about how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee views the best teams in the nation because those programs apparently didn’t get the memo. Week 11 provides some of the biggest surprises of the season and completely shook up the postseason picture.
What does it all mean? Our latest college football bowl projections provide a peek into the future outlook for all 134 teams.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 12 SMU Mustangs
- No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide
- No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The College Football Playoff predictions received a significant shakeup right off the bat in Week 11, with the previously undefeated Miami Hurricanes getting gashed by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Mario Cristobal’s team is likely going to drop outside of the top 10 and beyond, leaving the SMU Mustangs in the pound seat for a playoff berth as the projected ACC winner.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Then, the Georgia Bulldogs were dominated by Ole Miss, in another shocker that significantly impacts our College Football Playoff predictions. We expect Kirby Smart’s team to slide to 12th but will miss out on a spot in the postseason tournament. It will be fascinating to see how the selection committee views and separates Ole Miss, Alabama, and Georgia as two-loss teams.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 BYU Cougars vs. No. 6 Penn State
- Peach Bowl: No. 4 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 5 Ohio State
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 10 Alabama
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 8 Indiana
The four highest-ranked conference champions, according to our latest projections, will be BYU (Big 12), Boise State (Mountain West), Oregon (Big Ten), and Texas (SEC), with those four teams securing first-round byes in our latest College Football Playoff predictions. According to multiple reports, those conferences will automatically place teams into contract-specific bowls, as listed above.
With Miami losing and SMU on a bye in Week 11, Boise State leaps into a quarterfinal berth in our latest College Football Playoff projections as the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion. They’d face the highest-ranked team remaining after the first round, which in these College Football Playoff predictions is Ohio State.
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Indiana locks in a Sugar Bowl date with Texas as a two-point projected favorite over Notre Dame, according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter (FPM). Meanwhile, Alabama travels to Pasadena to take on top-ranked Oregon. While their first-round tie is a rematch of a regular season loss, the Crimson Tide should roll the Vols the second time around.
Finally, the importance of securing home-field advantage becomes abundantly clear in these projections. Our CFN FPM metric makes Ole Miss a favorite at a neutral venue, but gives the Nittany Lions a 1.5-point advantage in Beaver Stadium.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Ohio State
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 6 Penn State
In our College Football Playoff predictions, Oregon takes down Alabama in the Rose Bowl to book a spot in the semifinals. Our College Football Playoff predictions pit them against a Big Ten foe they avoided in regular season play. Both teams have dominant defenses and ludicrously good ground games, making for an intriguing matchup to decide who plays in the title game.
While Indiana has been one of the fairytale stories of the season, gliding to a 10-0 record against all expectations, their ceiling is likely to be the quarterfinals, especially if they come up against a team like Texas. The Hoosiers had their struggles against the Michigan Wolverines defense in Week 11, and the Longhorns have one of the best units in the nation and a better offense.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Texas
While Oregon vs. Penn State has the potential to be an impressive semifinal matchup to watch, the CFN FPM gives the Ducks a 10-point advantage on a neutral site. Much had been made in the preseason about a 12-team format cheapening the postseason tournament, but it’s still possible for the best team in the country to make their way unabated to the big game.
Our College Football Playoff predictions see Dan Lanning’s team take on the Longhorns in a clash of the two highest-seeded teams in the National Championship Game. Texas and Ohio State would be a much closer semifinal than the Cotton Bowl clash involving Oregon, with Steve Sarkisian’s team favored by a cigarette paper margin. Could they beat Oregon though?
Projections for the Remaining 2024 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Camellia Bowl
Buffalo vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Frisco Bowl
Navy vs. Georgia Southern
Boca Raton Bowl
Memphis vs. Buffalo
LA Bowl
Colorado State vs. Washington
New Orleans Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. James Madison
Cure Bowl
Louisiana vs. Miami (OH)
Gasparilla Bowl
North Texas vs. Texas State
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. San Jose State
Hawaii Bowl
East Carolina vs. Fresno State
Detroit Bowl
Nebraska vs. Western Michigan
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Rutgers vs. West Virginia
68 Ventures Bowl
Marshall vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Bowl
Sam Houston vs. Coastal Carolina
Birmingham Bowl
Arkansas vs. Syracuse
Liberty Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Las Vegas Bowl
California vs. South Carolina
Fenway Bowl
Boston College vs. Army
Pinstripe Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Michigan
New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico vs. Western Kentucky
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Clemson vs. Kansas State
Arizona Bowl
UNLV vs. Ohio
Military Bowl
Virginia vs. Tulane
Alamo Bowl
Iowa State vs. Colorado
Independence Bowl
Cincinnati vs. UCLA
Music City Bowl
Minnesota vs. Missouri
ReliaQuest Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Wisconsin
Sun Bowl
Duke vs. Arizona State
Citrus Bowl
Iowa vs. Texas A&M
Texas Bowl
TCU vs. LSU
Gator Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia
First Responder Bowl
UConn vs. Baylor
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Louisville vs. Illinois
Bahamas Bowl
Liberty vs. Eastern Michigan
Holiday Bowl
Miami (FL) vs. Washington State
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