The 2024 college football season has quickly become the year of the Colorado Buffaloes. After last year’s hopes quickly dissolved away, this season’s promise has continued to build, leading to a Week 11 victory over Texas Tech that put Colorado in sole possession of second place in the Big 12.
Here’s their road map to making the Big 12 Championship Game and beyond.
Colorado’s Big 12 Championship Game Odds
We’re taking a look at these before the Vegas lines come out using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and College Football Playoff Predictor methodology. In this methodology, we ran simulations for every team 10,000 times down the last three weeks of the season and calculated how many times each occurrence took place.
Basically, we simulated the season 10k times and found out how many times Colorado won the Big 12 after Week 11’s results have been locked in. We’ll walk you through Colorado’s specific road map below.
After those simulations, here’s how the Big 12 Championship odds stack up following Week 11’s action:
- BYU: 46.04%
- Colorado: 43.61%
- Kansas State: 4.61%
- Arizona State: 2.64%
- TCU: 1.39%
- Iowa State: 1.11%
- West Virginia: 0.57%
- Kansas: 0.02%
- Texas Tech: 0.01%
Updated Big 12 Standings
1) BYU Cougars 9-0 (6-0)
2) Colorado Buffaloes 7-2 (5-1)
3) Iowa State Cyclones 7-2 (4-2)
4) Kansas State Wildcats 7-2 (4-2)
5) Arizona State Sun Devils 7-2 (4-2)
6) West Virginia Mountaineers 5-4 (4-2)
7) TCU Horned Frogs 6-4 (4-3)
8) Texas Tech Red Raiders 6-4 (4-3)
9) Cincinnati Bearcats 5-4 (3-3)
10) Baylor Bears 5-4 (3-3)
11) Houston Cougars 4-5 (3-3)
12) Kansas Jayhawks 3-6 (2-4)
13) UCF Knights 4-6 (2-5)
14) Arizona Wildcats 3-6 (1-5)
15) Utah Utes 4-5 (1-5)
16) Oklahoma State Cowboys 3-7 (0-7)
Colorado Big 12 Championship Game Road Map
Now that the sims have been run, let’s use our exclusive winning probability model that powers our College Football Strength of Schedule to see how the road is paved for Colorado to make (and win) the Big 12 Championship Game. Here are the winning probabilities that feed into Colorado’s 43.61% chance to win the Big 12:
- Utah: 78.1%
- @ Kansas: 73.4%
- Oklahoma State: 84.2%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. BYU: 33.6%
So, the road map for Colorado is much clearer than most of the current ones. They can simply win out and make it to the Big 12 Championship Game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
It’s then those pesky Cougars that present the biggest obstacle for the Buffaloes the rest of the way out. BYU is two wins away from punching their ticket to the Big 12 Championship Game after coming from behind in the waning stages to defeat Utah in Week 11.
With their conference championship probability gaining traction, Colorado also saw a large uptick in their probability of making the College Football Playoffs. It’s not as easy as keep winning, however, to make the playoffs as they’d either have to become an at-large bid, or win the conference outright.
Both are still possibilities at this point, and Colorado’s chances of making the playoffs are at an all-time high.
Colorado Make Playoff Probability: 14.30%
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