After falling to their first defeat of the year, the Penn State Nittany Lions welcome the Washington Huskies to Beaver Stadium looking to keep in the race for the Big Ten Championship Game and a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Who wins? Our Washington vs. Penn State prediction covers all the key aspects, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Washington vs. Penn State Betting Preview
All Washington vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -14.5 - Spread
Penn State -13.5 - Moneyline
Penn State -500, Washington +380 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, PA - Predicted Weather at Kick
36 degrees, increasing clouds and a chilly evening for football, 4 mph winds - How to Watch
Peacock
Unsurprisingly, two programs at opposite ends of the country don’t have a rich and long history of playing against each other. They only have three previous encounters after first clashing in 1921, two of which came in postseason play. That includes the last matchup in 2017. Penn State has won all three games and enters Saturday night’s game favored to continue that streak.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Nittany Lions are undefeated this season when entering a game as the favorite, while the Huskies’ win against the USC Trojans last time out was their time overcoming the odds to win a game in 2024. They’re 1-2 as an underdog this year. Neither team has consistently covered the spread this season (7-17 ATS), but Penn State has an average margin of victory of 15+.
Washington’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Washington has only a 13.2% chance of beating Penn State on Saturday night. In good news for Huskies’ fans, our metric hasn’t always had a good read on the program, projecting a loss when they beat the Michigan Wolverines and inaccurately forecasting wins in several losses.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Washington in the 2024 college football season:
- at Penn State: 13.2%
- at Oregon: 6.4%
- vs. UCLA: 74.2%
If those win probabilities hold true, the Huskies would end the year with a 6-6 record, including a 4-5 Big Ten campaign. It was always going to be difficult to repeat the success of 2023 with a whole new coaching staff and a rejigged roster. Yet, that doesn’t prevent this campaign from being viewed as a disappointment.
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN FPM gives Penn State an 86.8% chance of beating Washington on Saturday night. Our metric has been in lockstep with the Nittany Lions, projecting their seven wins and only defeat of the year to the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Penn State in the 2024 college football season:
- vs. Washington: 86.8%
- at Purdue: 94.3%
- at Minnesota: 73%
- vs. Maryland: 94.4%
If those win probabilities hold true, the Nittany Lions will end the year with an 11-1 record, including an 8-1 Big Ten campaign. That could be enough for a Big Ten Championship Game appearance and College Football Playoff berth. Yet, in this wildest of seasons, it might not be enough to win the conference title.
Prediction for Washington vs. Penn State
The loss to Ohio State was a dagger to the heart of Penn State fans and their title and playoff chances while simultaneously heaping the pressure on head coach James Franklin after another big game loss. The Nittany Lions will want to put on a show to impress the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, but can they get the rebound win they so desperately need?
Standing in their way is a Washington team suffering a national title game hangover and a difficult adjustment period to a new conference. They’re well outside of consideration for the Big Ten title and playoff, but they need one win from their last three games to secure bowl eligibility for the third successive season. Who has the edge, and where will the pivotal battles play out?
After allowing more than 24 points per game for the past two seasons, Jedd Fisch has had a positive impact on the Huskies’ defense. Washington currently ranks 21st in the nation for scoring defense, allowing just 19 points per game on average. Linebacker Carson Bruener is playing at an extremely high level, while Ephesians Prycock and Thaddeus Dixon form a dangerous duo at the cornerback spot.
However, the offense has taken a step back. After losing their starting quarterback and a trio of pass-catching playmakers to the NFL, Washington averages almost 13 points per game fewer than in 2023. Will Rogers hasn’t recreated his SEC form for the Huskie, and no wide receiver looks like hitting 1,000 yards after the program had two 1,000-yard receivers a year ago.
Jonah Coleman has been a shining light for the unit, rushing for 889 yards and seven touchdowns at 6.3 yards per pop, but he might struggle to carry the offense against a Penn State defense that has allowed just four rushing touchdowns and 3.38 yards per carry this year. Abdul Carter hunted down ball carriers with ease, helping hold Nittany Lions’ opponents to 15 points per game.
While Washington has improved from a defensive standpoint this fall, they have given up 10 rushing scores, 150.78 yards per game, and 4.27 yards per carry. That should give Penn State’s double-headed monster of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton plenty of opportunity to lead the Nittany Lions’ offense, taking the pressure off Drew Allar and a disappointing WR room.
Prediction: Washington 14, Penn State 30
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