Not only are the California Bears seeking their first ACC win in 2024, but they’ll play the Wake Forest Demon Deacons for the first time in Week 11. With both teams at 4-4 and just four games remaining in the season, bowl eligibility is firmly on the line.
Our California vs. Wake Forest prediction breaks down the matchup, offering key betting insights to guide your wagers.
California vs. Wake Forest Betting Preview
All California vs. Wake Forest odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
California -6 - Spread
California -7 - Moneyline
California -250, Wake Forest +205 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
8 p.m. ET, Friday, Nov. 8 - Location
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium | Winston-Salem, N.C. - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, 3 mph winds, clear with periodic clouds - How To Watch
ACC Network
All signs point to the under cashing in this one, as it has hit in eight of Cal’s last 11 games, including five straight road games, and six of Wake Forest’s last seven Friday matchups.
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Spread trends are similarly one-sided, with the Bears going 5-2 ATS in the previous seven matchups while the Demon Deacons are 0-6-1 in their past seven home bouts.
California’s Winning Probability
The Bears are 0-4 in their first year in the ACC, but the FPM believes they’ll notch their first conference win in Week 11. If they do, they’ll be one more victory away from bowl contention, and with Stanford still on the schedule, it’s all but guaranteed.
- at Wake Forest: 65.7%
- vs. Syracuse: 55.6%
- vs. Stanford: 80.2%
- at SMU: 24.5%
Wake Forest’s Winning Probability
The ‘Deacs are also two wins away from bowling, but their path is far more difficult. They aren’t favored to leave any of their remaining four games victorious, with their highest win probability sitting just above 40%.
- vs. California: 34.3%
- at North Carolina: 41.1%
- at Miami-FL: 5.2%
- vs. Duke: 36.9%
Prediction for California vs. Wake Forest
Three of Wake Forest’s ACC games have been decided by four points or less — 31-30 loss to Virginia, 34-30 win over NC State, and 27-24 victory against Stanford — with the only blowout coming at the hands of Clemson (49-14).
Cal’s conference contests have been similarly tight, with an average score of 23.5 to 21.3. Thus, the under is the play here, especially when looking at the matchup numbers.
The ‘Deacs are top 25 in both explosive rush and pass rate, and the front seven should be able to wreck havoc against an offensive line that ranks 128th in tackles for loss allowed per game (7.62).
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Cal QB Fernando Mendoza has the offense in the top 50 in expected points added (EPA) per pass, but a poor rushing attack (118.8 yards per game, 3.39 yards per attempt) and offensive line (3.38 sacks allowed per game) have kept the unit behind the sticks.
The Bears have the talent to win this game, but it’s a matchup that should result in long, methodical drives, keeping the score low and allowing Wake Forest and its middle-of-the-pack offense (43rd in success rate) to cover the TD spread.
Prediction: California 24, Wake Forest 20
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