The San Diego State Aztecs own a 29-15 all-time series advantage over the New Mexico Lobos, but recent history is even more one-sided. New Mexico hasn’t defeated their conference rival since 2008, as the Aztecs are riding a nine-game win streak, including blowouts in the last two matchups (31-7 in 2021, 34-10 in 2022).
Our New Mexico vs. San Diego State preview breaks down the matchup, giving you crucial betting insights to help shape your picks.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Betting Preview
All New Mexico vs. San Diego State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
San Diego State -1 - Spread
San Diego State -2.5 - Moneyline
San Diego State -135, New Mexico +114 - Over/Under
66.5 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Friday, Nov. 8 - Location
Snapdragon Stadium | San Diego, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, 4 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
FS1
If there is one bet to make in a New Mexico game, it’s the over. The Lobos’ offense has helped surpass the total in eight of their last 10 games, including four of their last five on the road.
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If there is one bet not to make in this one, it’s New Mexico against the spread. The program is 1-4 ATS in its last five against San Diego State, and the Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests this season.
New Mexico’s Winning Probability
The Lobos are just two wins away from their best season since 2016 (9-4). If they are 3-6, that would put their record at 5-7 … yes, times have been tough in Albuquerque. And yet, they may not even reach that mark, as their win probability for the final two games lies below 40%.
- at San Diego State: 49.2%
- vs. Washington State: 17.9%
- at Hawaii: 39.4%
San Diego State’s Winning Probability
The Aztecs have only missed bowl season twice since 2010, but they’re in danger of making it three times. With four games left, they need three wins to make the postseason — according to the FPM, it’s going to be a tight race.
- vs. New Mexico: 50.8%
- at UNLV: 14.9%
- at Utah State: 49.6%
- vs. Air Force: 74.6%
Prediction for New Mexico vs. San Diego State
No need to bury the lede here — smash the under.
The total has only sniffed this number in one of SDSU’s games, and it was last week’s blowout loss to Boise State (56-24). In short, New Mexico isn’t Boise State.
Lobos QB Devon Dampier is one of the most “fun to watch” players in the nation, but this is a rough matchup for him. New Mexico has turned the ball over 18 times, while San Diego State has done so on just seven occasions.
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Dampier has only been sacked five times this year, but he hasn’t faced a defensive line this ferocious, as the Aztecs are fourth in the nation in QB takedowns this year (3.62 per game).
There’s also the matter of penalties playing a factor on both sides, with New Mexico (10.0 per game, most) and SDSU (9.25, second-most) playing some of the most undisciplined football on the collegiate stage.
On the flip side, everyone speaks on San Diego State head coach Sean Lewis’ uptempo offense, but the Aztecs have actually only averaged 65.1 offensive plays per game, 101st in the country and eight fewer than New Mexico (t-27th).
They’ll have success against the Lobos, who have allowed over seven yards per play and more than 40 points per game this season. However, freshman QB Danny O’Neill and RB Marquez Cooper engineer an offense that averages just 329.5 yards per game (115th).
Take the Aztecs to win and cover the field-goal spread, but the under is the safest play.
Prediction: San Diego State 34, New Mexico 27
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