While the 12-team College Football Playoff might be new, the rankings committee and late-season rankings releases are not. Still, many fans will be surprised when the rankings don’t line up exactly with how they view the teams.
While we’re not sure how the committee might feel about certain teams, we can look back to last season to see how it might differ from the AP Poll and how this week’s rankings could change before the final playoff seeding in early December.
How Did 2023’s Initial College Football Playoff Rankings Differ From the AP Poll
One thing that has always been odd to me is how we use a useless poll system to put rankings next to teams’ names for two-thirds of the season, then simply switch to an entirely different rankings system.
It’s harsh, but that’s what our polls have been so far — useless. Until the CFP rankings drop on Tuesday night, Nov. 5, nothing matters. So, how might the CFP rankings differ from this week’s AP Poll? Let’s look at last season to get an idea of what might differ.
First of all, we have to preface that there were more undefeated teams at this point last season, seven to be exact: four Blue Bloods, Washington, and three Group of Five teams.
This season, there are only five remaining undefeated teams. More interesting, is that only the Miami Hurricanes and Oregon Ducks are traditional powers. Joining those two are the BYU Cougars and Indiana Hoosiers — which have a combined one win against the AP top 25 — and the Group of Five’s Army Black Knights.
Still, the CFP committee typically is hesitant to give undefeated teams with weaker schedules high marks. Here are the rankings differences for each of the three non-Power Conference undefeated teams at this time last season:
- Air Force Falcons: No. 17 in AP, No. 25 in CFP (-8)
- James Madison Dukes: No. 23 in AP, unranked in CFP
- Liberty Flames: No. 28 in AP, unranked in CFP
Liberty reached the College Football Playoff rankings five weeks after being ranked in the AP Poll. James Madison peaked at No. 18 in the AP Poll but was never ranked by the committee, while Air Force stayed well behind its AP ranking until it eventually lost and was dropped entirely. We can even add the one-loss Tulane Green Wave to this list, a team that ranked behind multiple four-loss teams in the final College Football Playoff rankings.
Basically, the committee consistently favors teams with worse records against better schedules over teams with better records against easier competition.
That means that Indiana (No. 8 in the AP Poll), BYU (No. 9), and Army (No. 18) could find themselves much lower on the committee’s list.
I’m also intrigued about a one-loss Boise State Broncos team that has a legitimate Heisman contender and played the clear No. 1 team in the country to a one-score game.
Similarly, the AP Poll tends to have less SEC and Big Ten bias. While the initial rankings for the CFP and AP Poll had the same number of SEC and Big Ten teams — even putting them in similar positions — the rankings became more SEC-centric as the season went on.
By the end of the season, the final CFP ranking and AP Poll mirrored each other closely, except for a few key differences. A one-loss Alabama Crimson Tide team jumped the undefeated ACC Champion Florida State Seminoles and a four-loss Tennessee Volunteers team was several spots higher on the committee’s list.
How Did the Final College Football Playoff Ranking Differ From the Initial Ranking in 2023?
We have to remember that this is just the first of several weekly rankings. Ultimately, they give us an idea of where teams stand, but there’s a lot of football to be played before the committee locks in the seedings.
So, how did last year’s final ranking differ from the first?
A disclaimer here, as not much changed because the end of last season was rather predictable. I’d expect this season to look a bit different, given the chaotic nature of the first 10 weeks.
Last season, five undefeated Power Five teams led the rankings. Two of those teams were the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines, who had not yet played their iconic rivalry game, and the committee knew they would likely drop the loser.
So, while Oregon and Ohio State could be Nos. 1 and 2 this year, don’t fret. It will get sorted out. With an expanded 12-team playoff, I’d expect around five or six games between the top 10 teams that could help stratify the teams on the field.
Just this weekend alone, Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels and Alabama vs. LSU Tigers could have huge playoff implications. The loser of the latter will essentially be eliminated from playoff contention, while the same could be said if Ole Miss loses, regardless of how high or low those teams rank.
No. 7 (Texas Longhorns) and No. 8 (Alabama) were the lowest-ranked teams in the initial rankings to make the top four last season, but that could change with 12 teams. I’ve had in my mind the No. 20 team as the realistic cut-off this season, but that’s based on conjecture, not fact. If the rest of the season goes according to conventional wisdom, even the No. 16 or 17 team could win out and miss the playoff.
Theoretically, an unranked team could make the top 12 or even the top four, especially with the implications of automatic byes for the four-best conference champions.
I’m sure there will be at least a few shockers in the rankings on Tuesday night — just try not to overreact, there’s a lot of football left.
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