Two teams riding the momentum of very different surprises last week face off this Friday night as the Rice Owls take on the Memphis Tigers in an all-AAC clash.
Who comes out on top? Our Rice vs. Memphis prediction covers it all, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Rice vs. Memphis Betting Preview
All Rice vs. Memphis odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Memphis -12 - Spread
Memphis -7 - Moneyline
Memphis -290, Rice +235 - Over/Under
51 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium | Memphis, TN
- Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, becoming cloudy, 8 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Friday night marks the first time the Owls and Tigers have clashed since 2012, when Memphis escaped with a narrow win in Tennessee. While the individual games have historically been tight (except in 2011), the head-to-head has been even more closely fought, with the two teams tied at 2-2 ahead of the fifth edition. However, the odds don’t forecast a tight game in 2024.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If our prediction holds true, Memphis on the moneyline is a given, but that won’t give you much bang for your buck unless you include it in a parlay. Both teams are 4-5 ATS this season, which might not inspire much confidence in a wager. Yet, the Tigers have an average winning margin of 10.8, cover the spread by 3.6 points, and should be good for a comfortable win.
Rice’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Rice has an 18.9% chance of beating Memphis on Friday night. The Owls come into the came off the back of one shock, but our metric deems it unlikely that they will taste success for the second consecutive week.
The remaining win probabilities for Rice in the 2024 season are below:
- at Memphis: 18.9%
- at UAB: 61.9%
- vs. USF: 32.3%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Owls would end the season with a 4-8 record. Head coach Mike Bloomgren already paid the price for a difficult second season in the AAC, and interim Pete Alamar would match the former head coach’s win total in just four games if they beat the UAB Blazers.
Memphis’ Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN FPM gives Memphis an 81.1% chance of beating Rice on Friday night. The Tigers will look to bounce back from a shock defeat to the UTSA Roadrunners and are yet to lose back-to-back games this year.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Tigers in the 2024 season:
- vs. Rice: 81.1%
- vs. UAB: 90.8%
- at Tulane: 32.3%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Memphis would end the year with a 9-3 record that includes three conference losses. After looking like a favorite to win the AAC and make the College Football Playoff, the team will likely miss out on both, heaping substantial pressure on fifth-year head coach Ryan Silverfield.
Prediction for Rice vs. Memphis
Rice pulled off one of Week 10’s biggest stunners, toppling the Navy Midshipmen in a game few saw coming. It marked just their third win of the season but was a promising debut for interim head coach Alamar, who started his FBS head coaching career on the right foot. Did the renowned special teams guru unlock something new for the Owls, or was this just the classic post-firing jolt?
On the other sideline, the Tigers are looking for redemption after a surprising loss to UTSA, a game they were expected to win. Each setback pushes the AAC Championship Game further out of reach. Can Memphis rebound and avoid back-to-back upsets? Let’s dive into the matchup to see who has the edge and where the key battles will unfold.
Memphis struggled mightily against UTSA’s passing attack, but Rice’s offense may not pose the same challenge.
Temple transfer QB E.J. Warner has had his share of highs and lows this season, throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns while averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt. Unlike Navy’s option-heavy attack, Warner’s lack of mobility shouldn’t give Memphis the same headaches.
Rice, however, boasts a dynamic rushing threat in Dean Connors, one of the nation’s most underrated dual-threat playmakers and likely the focal point of the Owls’ offense.
This Rice vs. Memphis showdown actually highlights two standout rushers. For Memphis, Mario Anderson has been a force, amassing over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns this season. However, he’ll face stiff resistance from a Rice defense that ranks third in the AAC in rushing touchdowns allowed and fifth in yards per carry.
Rice has also been steady against the pass, with Sean Fresch and Max Ahoia combining for 13 pass breakups. They could benefit from the possible absence of Memphis’ touchdown leader, wide receiver Demeer Blankumsee, who suffered an injury while celebrating a score against UTSA.
Even so, Seth Henigan has a deep arsenal of weapons, including Anderson, who should spearhead the Tigers’ offense and lead Memphis to a much-needed bounce-back win.
Prediction: Rice 21, Memphis 33
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