Two teams involved at opposite ends of the shock spectrum last week clash this Friday night as the Rice Owls face the Memphis Tigers in an All-AAC matchup.
Who wins? Our Rice vs. Memphis prediction covers all the key aspects, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Rice vs. Memphis Betting Preview
All Rice vs. Memphis odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Memphis -12 - Spread
Memphis -9 - Moneyline
Memphis -355, Rice +280 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium | Memphis, TN
- Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, becoming cloudy, 8 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Friday night marks the first time the Owls and Tigers have clashed since 2012, when Memphis escaped with a narrow win in Tennessee. While the individual games have historically been tight (except in 2011), the head-to-head has been even more closely fought, with the two teams tied at 2-2 ahead of the fifth edition. However, the odds don’t forecast a tight game in 2024.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If our prediction holds true, Memphis on the moneyline is a given, but that won’t give you much bang for your buck unless you include it in a parlay. Both teams are 4-5 ATS this season, which might not inspire much confidence in a wager. Yet, the Tigers have an average winning margin of 10.8, cover the spread by 3.6 points, and should be good for a comfortable win.
Rice’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Rice has an 18.9% chance of beating Memphis on Friday night. The Owls come into the came off the back of one shock, but our metric deems it unlikely that they will taste success for the second consecutive week.
The remaining win probabilities for Rice in the 2024 season are below:
- at Memphis: 18.9%
- at UAB: 61.9%
- vs. USF: 32.3%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Owls would end the season with a 4-8 record. Head coach Mike Bloomgren already paid the price for a difficult second season in the AAC, and interim Pete Alamar would match the former head coach’s win total in just four games if they beat the UAB Blazers.
Memphis’ Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN FPM gives Memphis an 81.1% chance of beating Rice on Friday night. The Tigers will look to bounce back from a shock defeat to the UTSA Roadrunners and are yet to lose back-to-back games this year.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Tigers in the 2024 season:
- vs. Rice: 81.1%
- vs. UAB: 90.8%
- at Tulane: 32.3%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Memphis would end the year with a 9-3 record that includes three conference losses. After looking like a favorite to win the AAC and make the College Football Playoff, the team will likely miss out on both, heaping substantial pressure on fifth-year head coach Ryan Silverfield.
Prediction for Rice vs. Memphis
Rice sunk the Navy Midshipmen in arguably one of the biggest shocks of college football Week 10. It was just their third win of the season and gave interim head coach Alamar a winning start in his first time leading an FBS program. Did the renowned special teams coordinator unlock some secret sauce for the Owls, or was it just a customary post-firing knee-jerk reaction?
The Tigers need a reaction of their own after falling to the UTSA Roadrunners in a game they were expected to win. With the AAC Championship Game getting further out of reach with every loss, can they regather their focus and avoid a second successive shock? Who has the edge, and where will the pivotal battles play out?
Memphis was gashed through the air against UTSA, and despite having a heavy-volume passing attack, Rice likely won’t trouble the Tigers in the same way. Temple Owls transfer quarterback E.J. Warner has been as likely to throw an interception as a touchdown this fall and averages just 5.2 yards per pass attempt.
He also poses little threat with his legs, something the Tigers struggled to defend in their loss to Navy earlier in the season. They do have a ground game threat, however, in the shape of Dean Connors. The Rice running back might be one of the more criminally underrated players in the country as a multi-faceted weapon. He’s likely to be the leading offensive contributor.
In fact, this Rice vs. Memphis matchup features two under-the-national-radar rushers, with the Tigers’ offense being led by Mario Anderson. With over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 16 total touchdowns, he’s been near-unstoppable this fall but will need to be on top form against an Owls defense that ranks third in the AAC for rushing touchdowns allowed and fifth for yards per carry.
Rice has also been stingy defending the passing game, with Sean Fresch and Max Ahoia combining for 13 pass breakups. Their cause may be aided by the absence of Memphis’ leading WR (in touchdowns scored), Demeer Blankumsee, who picked up an injury celebrating a touchdown snag against UTSA.
However, Seth Henigan has plenty of receiving options, including running back Anderson, who figures to be the spearhead behind a bounceback win.
Prediction: Rice 21, Memphis 33
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.