A promising season quickly fell apart for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, while the Minnesota Golden Gophers turned around an ugly start with four consecutive conference wins.
Can the Golden Gophers keep it going, or will the Scarlet Knights bounce back? Find out which way we lean in this Minnesota vs. Rutgers prediction.
Minnesota vs. Rutgers Betting Preview
All Minnesota vs. Rutgers odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Minnesota -4.5 - Spread
Minnesota -6 - Moneyline
Minnesota -238, Rutgers +195 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, Noon ET - Location
SHI Stadium | Piscataway, NJ - Predicted Weather at Kick
56 degrees, sunny, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
These teams are trending in opposite directions as Rutgers has dropped four straight, while Minnesota is unbeaten in its last four. That’s reflected in a spread that gives the Golden Gophers a distinct advantage.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a spread of six points and a total of just 46.5 points, Vegas expects a low-scoring game. The implied final score is close to 26-20 in favor of the Golden Gophers.
Minnesota’s Winning Probability
When we ran the Big Ten Championship scenarios, Minnesota won the Big Ten in a single sim out of 10,000. It’s highly unlikely the Golden Gophers make the championship game, but it’s a testament to their recent play. Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Golden Gophers have a 63.1% chance to win Saturday before key games against Penn State and Wisconsin.
- at Rutgers: 63.1%
- vs. Penn State: 27%
- at Wisconsin: 50%
Rutgers’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Rutgers has a 36.9%% chance of beating Minnesota at home, which translates to a spread of about 4.5 points. Needing two wins for bowl eligibility, all four of the Scarlet Knights’ final four games have implied spreads of less than five points.
- vs. Minnesota: 36.9%
- at Maryland: 52.5%
- vs. Illinois: 38%
- at Michigan State: 45.7%
Prediction for Minnesota vs. Rutgers
So much of life in the new Big Ten for middle-of-the-road teams is momentum. The Golden Gophers were pretty much dead in the water before getting a sinking USC Trojans team at home and resurrecting its season.
I’m not even sure Minnesota is playing much better than when it lost two straight back in late September.
The formula isn’t even ground-breaking. The Golden Gophers are playing solid defense, riding a solid running game, and getting enough in the passing game to stay balanced.
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Max Brosmer has been perfectly fine, which is a compliment for a quarterback on a team with that formula. But, the Gophers can’t rely on one-score wins — that might catch up with them at some point.
Rutgers, on the other hand, looked strong in the non-conference but has petered out in the Big Ten. It’s not like the non-conference wins are looking worse; the Virginia Tech win actually looks better now than it did.
Instead, it’s like the offense got figured out against Nebraska and the defense got figured out against Wisconsin. Neither unit has been particularly strong in the previous three, as the Scarlet Knights have been outscored 129-59.
I’m not quite sure what’s wrong with the Scarlet Knights, even in doing a statistical deep dive, other than that they’ve seemed to have lost their mojo. Did they find it during the bye week?
Chalk it up to a feeling, but I think the Scarlet Knights keep this close, at least initially. I’m a huge fan of the Minnesota defense, though. An ill-timed turnover or two can flip the script and widen the game. Rutgers isn’t built to play from behind, and when the offense presses, bad things happen.
I’m interested to see if true freshman safety Koi Perich can pick off his fifth pass in as many games for the Golden Gophers. Expect it to be close before Minnesota eventually pulls away for a two-score win in another low-scoring, grind-it-out type of game.
Prediction: Minnesota 23, Rutgers 14
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