The Purdue Boilermakers are 1-7 this season, and things won’t get easier as College Footballl Network’s Strength of Schedule Metric ranks the Big Ten’s last-place team’s remaining schedule as the hardest in college football. Can the Boilermakers pull off a miraculous upset over the Ohio State Buckeyes?
Doubtful. But can they cover the spread? To find out which way we lean on the spread and total, keep reading our Purdue vs. Ohio State prediction.
Purdue vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Purdue vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -30 - Spread
Ohio State -37.5 - Moneyline
N/A - Over/Under
53 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, Noon ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
61 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
This is CFN’s largest Power Four vs. Power Four spread of the year, and we still may have underestimated the magnitude of the gap between these teams. The line opened at Ohio State -38 and has ticked down to 37.5.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of just 53 points and the spread so wide, Vegas thinks little of Purdue here. The implied final score is close to 45-8 in favor of the Buckeyes.
Purdue’s Winning Probability
Poor Purdue. A bad season is about to get worse. Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Boilermakers are heavy underdogs in all four remaining games, with just a 0.4% chance to win this game, per the metric.
- at Ohio State: 0.4%
- vs. Penn State: 5.7%
- at Michigan State: 22.6%
- at Indiana: 3.3%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Ohio State has a 99.6% chance of beating Purdue at home, which translates to a spread of about 30 points, the biggest we’ve assigned to a Power-conference game this season.
The Buckeyes still control their own destiny and can win out to make the Big Ten Championship Game, with the matchup against Indiana essentially being a play-in game.
- vs. Purdue: 99.6%
- at Northwestern: 95.2%
- vs. Indiana: 66.9%
- vs. Michigan: 89.8%
Prediction for Purdue vs. Ohio State
Not only has Purdue been the worst team in the Power Four this season, but the Boilermakers also have the hardest remaining schedule. Three of the last four are against zero or one-loss teams, starting with the Buckeyes in Columbus.
There’s just no path to victory in this game. I’ll happily eat crow if the Boilermakers pull off the largest in-conference upset of all time.
So, we’ll focus on the spread and total instead.
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Handicapping games with such a wide spread is difficult. So much can happen late in blowouts to tip the scales either way, from teams deciding to pour it on to underdogs showing surprising fight once the backups enter the game up 40 points.
But I think the Buckeyes will want to impress the College Football Playoff Committee in the event they lose to Indiana in a few weeks’ time.
We know the Buckeyes will pour it on early, but will they continue pressing in the second half?
Here’s some weird logic about why I think the Buckeyes can cover and hit the over.
Ohio State and its collective did tremendous work to entice several draft-eligible upperclassmen to return to school. That led to several really talented underclassmen having to ride the bench this season.
While Ohio State will likely go to the reserves early, those reserves are as good or even better than the average Big Ten team. The average Big Ten team is light years better than Purdue, so even if Will Howard and Emeka Egbuka exit the game early, players like Julian Sayin and Brandon Inniss have the talent to keep scoring.
I hate betting on large spreads, but if you must, take the Buckeyes and the over.
Prediction: Ohio State 51, Purdue 9
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