One team stumbled out of the gate and has somewhat found its footing, while the other started strong only to slide downhill. Safe to say, neither Appalachian State Mountaineers nor Coastal Carolina Chanticleers fans are thrilled with how things have played out.
Yet, both teams are still in the hunt for bowl eligibility, making Thursday’s Sun Belt showdown a pivotal step toward the postseason. Check out our Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina prediction to see which team we’re backing.
Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina Betting Preview
All Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Appalachian State -1.5 - Spread
App State -2 - Moneyline
App State -125, Coastal Carolina +105 - Over/Under
62.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 7, 8 p.m. ET - Location
Brooks Stadium | Conway, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
69 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
This game features two teams who have failed to meet expectations this season. Yet, each can qualify for a bowl game with a strong finish.
People have had a difficult time pegging this one, and it doesn’t surprise me to see this thin line flip ahead of the game. What sat as a -1 favorite for Coastal Carolina to start the week has now switched to a two-point favorite for the Mountaineers before kick.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 62.5 points and the spread set at just two points, Vegas expects a high-scoring, close game. The implied final score is approximately 33-31 in favor of the Mountaineers.
Appalachian State’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Mountaineers have three close games to get two wins after having one of their games canceled due to Hurricane Helene. The Mountaineers will only be favored by the metric in this game, and just a 52.5% winning probability at that, so the margin is razor thin.
- at Coastal Carolina: 52.5%
- vs. James Madison: 25.4%
- at Georgia Southern: 41.1%
Coastal Carolina’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Coastal Carolina has a 47.5% chance of beating Appalachian State at home, which translates to a spread of just 1.5 points. The Chanticleers need to win two of four to reach a bowl game, and every matchup is expected to be tight, with implied spreads of less than six points in each.
- vs. Appalachian State: 47.5%
- at Marshall: 35.4%
- vs. Georgia Southern: 39.4%
- at Georgia State: 50.8%
Prediction for Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina
After dropping three of its first four FBS matchups, Appalachian State has found some rhythm, securing back-to-back wins against conference rivals. But that doesn’t mean their run defense issues are solved.
The Mountaineers were outgained by more than 100 yards against Old Dominion, and on a per-play basis, they rank in the bottom 10 nationally against the run, giving up 5.7 yards per attempt.
Coastal Carolina isn’t faring any better; opponents actually run on them more often than they do on App State. Coastal ranks 11th-worst in college football for rushing yards allowed per game and is among the weakest defenses on third downs and in the red zone.
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While both teams have explosive passing games, the edge may go to the team that can slow things down, control the clock, and grind out yardage on the ground.
For App State, it’s the Joey Aguilar and Kaedin Robinson show on offense. Robinson has led in receiving yards in all eight games and topped scrimmage yards in six of those. But the rise of senior running back Ahmani Marshall adds another dimension to the Mountaineers’ attack.
After totaling just 119 rushing yards in the first six games, Marshall has posted back-to-back 115+ yard performances.
During this winning streak, App State’s offense has been highly efficient, especially in clutch moments. They’ve converted 14 of 24 third downs over the last two games and have seen improvement in a previously lackluster red-zone offense.
Ultimately, the game will come down to which team’s offense capitalizes in crucial situations. Both defenses rank among the worst in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
The difference? Coastal Carolina’s offense shines in the red zone, ranking eighth nationally in points per scoring chance, while App State’s defense sits at 134th, surrendering an average of 4.9 points in those situations.
Although red-zone efficiency can be unpredictable in a single game, I lean toward the Chanticleers to turn scoring chances into touchdowns against a struggling App State defense more than I trust the Mountaineers to do the same.
In a high-scoring matchup, that could be the deciding factor. One team will punch in touchdowns, while the other may end up chasing sevens instead of settling for threes.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 35, Appalachian State 29
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