One team started poorly and has somewhat turned things around. The other started well and went downhill. It’s safe to say that neither Appalachian State Mountaineers nor Coastal Carolina Chanticleers fans are happy right now.
But both teams are alive in the race for bowl eligibility, making Thursday’s Sun Belt clash crucial to the postseason. Find out which team we think wins in this Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina prediction.
Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina Betting Preview
All Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Appalachian State -1.5 - Spread
Coastal Carolina -1 - Moneyline
Coastal Carolina -112, Appalachian State -108 - Over/Under
62.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 7, 8 p.m. ET - Location
Brooks Stadium | Conway, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
69 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
This game features two teams who have failed to meet expectations this season. Yet, each can qualify for a bowl game with a strong finish.
People have had a difficult time pegging this one, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this thin line, which is currently as close to a pick ’em as you can get, flip once or twice.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 62.5 points and the spread set at just one point, Vegas expects a high-scoring, close game. The implied final score is approximately 32-31 in favor of the Chanticleers.
Appalachian State’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Mountaineers have three close games to get two wins after having one of their games canceled due to Hurricane Helene. The Mountaineers will only be favored by the metric in this game, and just a 52.5% winning probability at that, so the margin is razor thin.
- at Coastal Carolina: 52.5%
- vs. James Madison: 25.4%
- at Georgia Southern: 41.1%
Coastal Carolina’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Coastal Carolina has a 47.5% chance of beating Appalachian State at home, which translates to a spread of just 1.5 points. The Chanticleers need to win two of four to reach a bowl game, and every matchup is expected to be tight, with implied spreads of less than six points in each.
- vs. Appalachian State: 47.5%
- at Marshall: 35.4%
- vs. Georgia Southern: 39.4%
- at Georgia State: 50.8%
Prediction for Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina
After losing three of its first four FBS games, Appalachian State has started to pick things up in recent weeks, rattling off back-to-back wins over conference foes. But that doesn’t mean the run defense is fixed.
The Mountaineers were outgained by over 100 yards against Old Dominion. On a per-play basis, App State’s defense is in the bottom 10 in the country against the run, allowing 5.7 yards per attempt.
The Chanticleers aren’t any better; teams actually run the ball against them more than the Mountaineers. In terms of yards allowed per game, Coastal Carolina is 11th-worst against the run in college football. The Chanticleers are also one of the worst defenses on third downs and in the red zone.
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Both of these teams are known for their ability to throw the ball for big gains on offense, but the winner might be the one that can slow it down and chew up clock (and yardage) on the ground.
App State’s offense is basically the Joey Aguilar and Kaedin Robinson show. Robinson has been the leading receiver in all eight games, leading in scrimmage yards in six of those. That being said, the emergence of senior running back Ahmani Marshall bodes well for the Mountaineers.
After racking up a total of 119 rushing yards in the team’s first six games, Marshall has run for at least 115 yards in each of his last two games.
On this winning streak, the Mountaineers have been extremely efficient on offense, especially in key situations. They’re 14 of 24 on third downs in the past two games and have improved one of the worst red-zone offenses in college football.
The winner here is the one with the offense that capitalizes in key situations. These defenses are two of the worst in terms of points per scoring opportunity.
The difference is that Coastal Carolina’s offense is one of the best near the end zone, eighth nationally in points per scoring opportunity. App State’s defense is 134th in that stat, allowing 4.9 points on average.
While that stat can be fluky in a one-game sample size, I trust the Chanticleers to turn scoring opportunities into touchdowns against a terrible App State defense in those situations more than I trust the Mountaineers’ offense to do the same.
In a high-scoring game, that can be the difference. One team will score more touchdowns than field goals, while the other might struggle when forced to chase seven points instead of three.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 35, Appalachian State 29
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