Are you ready for some midweek MACtion mayhem? The Mid-American Conference returns on Tuesday night with two marvellous marchups, including the Miami (OH) RedHawks meandering to Muncie to take on the Ball State Cardinals.
Who wins? Our Miami (OH) vs. Ball State prediction covers all the key aspects, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Miami (OH) vs. Ball State Betting Preview
All Miami (OH) vs. Ball State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami (OH) -6.5 - Spread
Miami (OH) -12 - Moneyline
Miami (OH) -455, Ball State +350 - Over/Under
48 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Scheumann Stadium | Muncie, IN - Predicted Weather at Kick
50 degrees, cloudy with occasional rain, 10 mph - How to Watch
ESPN
Miami (OH) heads into the Tuesday night MACtion matchup with Ball State boasting a 23-13-1 advantage in the all-time head-to-head. The RedHawks are also on a four-game win streak against their MAC rival, including two wins on the road in Muncie. Unsurprisingly, given their performances this season, Miami (OH) is a substantial favorite as the two teams collide once more.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Redhawks have won every game they’ve been favored this season, including three on the bounce in the MAC. Meanwhile, Ball State has just one win as an underdog in 2024. The Cardinals have been much better at covering the spread this fall, going 5-3 ATS. However, they’re 2-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog, while the RedHawks have covered their last three.
Miami (OH)’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Miami (OH) has a 67.7% chance of beating Ball State tonight. Our metric has been in lockstep with the RedHawks for most of this season, accurately projecting the result of all-bar-one of their eight games in 2024.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Miami (OH):
- at Ball State: 67.7%
- vs. Kent State: 91.1%
- vs. Northern Illinois: 61.1%
- at Bowling Green: 46.6%
Ball State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN FPM gives Ball State a 32.3% chance of beating the RedHawks tonight. Although our metric didn’t predict the Cardinals’ win over the Northern Illinois Huskies in Week 9, the CFN FPM spread line was much shorter than the one offered by the major oddsmakers.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Ball State in the 2024 season:
- vs. Miami (OH): 32.3%
- at Buffalo: 35.9%
- vs. Bowling Green: 29.7%
- at Ohio: 28.4%
Prediction for Miami (OH) vs. Ball State
Midweek MACtion returns to our lives in Week 11, with Miami traveling to Muncie to take on Ball State, with the result having huge implications for the rest of the season. Although the RedHawks head into the game with title aspirations, a win for Ball State would give the two teams an identical MAC record with three games left to play.
Will Chuck Martin’s team establish themselves as legitimate title contenders as they attempt to become the first team since 2012 to win successive MAC championships? Can Ball State play spoiler as they strive for their first winning season since 2020? Who has the edge, and where will the pivotal battles play out?
The 12-point spread offered by DrafKings for this game suggests a significant advantage for the RedHawks, and there will be a noticeable one when the two teams hit the field on Tuesday night. Miami’s offense vs. Ball State’s defense is going to be the greatest factor in the direction of this game, with the Cardinals inability to stop offenses this season likely proving costly.
Miami has hardly been an offensive juggernaut this year (averaging 22.8 points per game). Still, in the last three, they’ve put up 30+ points on the Eastern Michigan Eagles, Ohio Bobcats, and Central Michigan Chippewas. When healthy, there isn’t a better MAC quarterback than Brett Gabbert, while Javon Tracy, Reginald Virgil, and Keyon Mozee are all dangerous playmakers.
A defense that has allowed an average of 40.4 points per game (ranking 131st in the nation) while allowing the most passing touchdowns in the MAC (24) and giving up over nine yards per passing play simply isn’t a match for the Miami offense. Having only snagged four interceptions all season, Gabbert should be able to confidently direct the RedHawks passing game.
Meanwhile, the RedHawks defense is a top 25 unit in the country, allowing just 19.9 points per game. They’ve snagged more interceptions than they’ve allowed touchdowns and held opposition quarterbacks under six yards per attempt while ranking fourth in the MAC for rushing yards allowed. Ball State TE Tanner Koziol is a dangerous weapon for Cardinals’ QB Kadin Semonza, but they’ll find the going tough on Tuesday night.
Prediction: Miami (OH) 30, Ball State 14
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