In the old playoff format, both Alabama and LSU would likely be out of serious postseason contention. But with the new 12-team College Football Playoff, more games carry weight.
Despite each team’s two losses, the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers remain very much in the hunt and probably control their own playoff destinies. That makes this matchup pivotal. Here’s our take on the spread and total for Saturday’s showdown between Alabama and LSU.
Alabama vs. LSU Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. LSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Alabama -2.5 - Moneyline
Alabama -142, LSU +120 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 7:30 ET - Location
Tiger Stadium | Baton Rouge, LA - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
This game is expected to be very close. CFN’s FPM has this as a true pick ’em, while sportsbooks have Alabama anywhere from a two to 2.5-point favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 58 points and the spread so close, Vegas expects a tightly contested, somewhat high-scoring contest. The implied final score is close to 30-28 in favor of the Crimson Tide.
Alabama’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Crimson Tide still have a slight chance to win the conference. Alabama has a 50% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making its hardest remaining game of the year a true toss-up.
- at LSU: 50%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 81.1%
- vs. Auburn: 94.3%
LSU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, LSU also has a 50% chance of beating the Crimson Tide at home. FPM still thinks the Tigers have a decent shot at making the College Football Playoff, but a loss to Alabama would really make that difficult.
- vs. Alabama: 50%
- at Florida: 89.0%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 74.9%
- vs. Oklahoma: 86.8%
Prediction for Alabama vs. LSU
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has looked incredibly confident this season—except for two tough road games. In the first, the Tigers leaned on their ground game to outlast South Carolina. Against Texas A&M, though, the Aggies completely neutralized the run, forcing Nussmeier into the worst half of his career.
So, which version of the Tigers’ offense will show up on Saturday?
If Nussmeier has time, there’s a real opportunity against this Alabama secondary. In fact, the Crimson Tide rank dead last in the SEC in expected points added per successful pass against—a fancy way of saying they give up a lot of explosive plays, and those plays tend to go for big yards.
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It seems like every week, the Tide suffers a crucial defensive lapse that leads to points. If they didn’t address this during their second bye week, you can bet Nussmeier will connect on a deep shot for a huge touchdown.
Expect the Tigers to aim for a more balanced approach this week, too.
I have real concerns about the Crimson Tide’s defense. Even though I like their coaching staff and think they’ll make adjustments, I just don’t see them as an elite unit. They should be better, but the extent of improvement is still unclear.
The question is whether Alabama’s offense can put up enough points to make this a high-scoring affair. LSU has had its share of three-and-outs and stalled drives, so if it comes down to scoring on every possession, the pressure could mount quickly.
I’m leaning toward LSU, especially with the advantage of a night game in Death Valley. This atmosphere could really boost the Tigers. The big question is, can Alabama meet that challenge?
I expect a great game, but I think I trust Nussmeier to play a cleaner game than Milroe. In a matchup where every possession matters, one turnover could be the difference. Back the underdogs in a shootout.
Prediction: LSU 38, Alabama 36
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