With “Weekday CUSA” wrapping up earlier in the week, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and UTEP Miners play a standalone conference clash on Saturday afternoon. The result is crucial for both teams looking to avoid a total 2024 disaster.
Our Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP prediction dives into all the essential details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP Betting Preview
All Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
- CFN FPM Spread
UTEP -0.5 - Spread
UTEP -3 - Moneyline
UTEP -148, Middle Tennessee +124 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Sun Bowl | El Paso, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
81 degrees, mostly sunny, 8 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
Middle Tennessee enters this Saturday’s showdown with a healthy head-to-head advantage over UTEP. The 2024 edition is the seventh clash between the two CUSA foes, with the Blue Raiders holding a 5-1 lead after winning the last four straight games. They also won the last two in El Paso (2022 and 2018) negating a perceived road disadvantage in Week 10.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, the Miners are favored by a field goal, according to DraftKings’ odds. They’ve been in that position just once all season, losing to Southern Utah in Week 2 with a slightly larger moneyline. They’ve covered the last two games, while Middle Tennessee has covered just twice all season. Take the Miners on the moneyline and to cover in this CUSA matchup.
Middle Tennessee’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Middle Tennessee has a 49.6% chance of beating UTEP on Saturday afternoon. Our metric gives a small home-field advantage, basically making this a coin-flip game where the Blue Raiders could get a result on the road.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Middle Tennessee in the 2024 season:
- at UTEP: 49.6%
- vs. Liberty: 24.7%
- vs. New Mexico State: 60.6%
- at FIU: 38.1%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Blue Raiders would end the year with a 3-9 record in the first year under Derek Mason. That would mark the worst overall record since the 2011 campaign that was their penultimate year in the Sun Belt.
UTEP’s Winning Probability
Conversely, UTEP has a 50.4% chance of beating Middle Tennessee in this all-CUSA showdown. A win would be vitally important for the Miners, who have been largely disappointing during Scotty Walden’s first season.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for UTEP in the 2024 college football season.
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 50.4%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 62.6%
- at Tennessee: 0.1%
- at New Mexico State: 48.8%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Miners would end the campaign with a 3-9 record. After an abysmal start to conference play, a 3-5 CUSA campaign would be a one-win improvement on the final season of the Dana Dimel era.
Prediction for Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP
This is a must-win for both teams. For Middle Tennessee, they’re still not out of the running for bowl eligibility, even if their remaining schedule makes it seem impossible. A defeat would burst the bubble of postseason possibility, but they need the win to help build momentum more than anything else in this first season under a new regime.
UTEP is already out of the postseason picture, but after beating the FIU Panthers and narrowly losing to the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, they need to continue moving in the right direction under first-year head coach Walden. Who gets the much-needed win on Saturday afternoon? Who has the edge, and where will the crucial battles unfold?
UTEP being the favorite by both the oddsmakers and CFN FPM is a reflection of who holds the advantage here. The Miners might not have been as offensively dynamic as expected in the first year under Walden, but in Jevon Jackson and Ezell Jolly, they have a double-headed monster in the backfield that can pace the run game, which will be pivotal to success in this game.
Why is it so pivotal? Well, Middle Tennessee has been abysmal at stopping the run this year. The Blue Raiders sit plum last in CUSA for yards per carried allowed (5.29) while only two teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns (19) in the conference, with FIU having played an extra game. Even Louisiana Tech’s poor running game put up over 200 yards on Middle Tennessee.
So, there’s the potential for UTEP to put up some exciting numbers and points, can their defense hold up and help the team snag just a second victory of the year?
Middle Tennessee has been able to carve up defenses through the air this season, with the second-most passing yards in CUSA, but they’ve not been able to convert that into points, averaging just 16.9 points per game. The Miners have allowed 30.3 per game, and the secondary has struggled, but they have the talent to keep Nicholas Vattiato under pressure all afternoon.
Prediction: Middle Tennessee 23, UTEP 27
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