With “Weekday CUSA” finishing up earlier this week, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and UTEP Miners face off in a standalone conference matchup on Saturday afternoon. The outcome is pivotal for both teams as they try to avoid a complete 2024 breakdown.
Our Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP prediction covers all the key aspects, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP Betting Preview
All Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UTEP -0.5 - Spread
UTEP -3 - Moneyline
UTEP -155, Middle Tennessee +130 - Over/Under
51 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Sun Bowl | El Paso, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
81 degrees, mostly sunny, 8 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
Middle Tennessee enters this Saturday’s showdown with a healthy head-to-head advantage over UTEP. The 2024 edition is the seventh clash between the two CUSA foes, with the Blue Raiders holding a 5-1 lead after winning the last four straight games. They also won the last two in El Paso (2022 and 2018) negating a perceived road disadvantage in Week 10.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, the Miners are favored by a field goal, according to DraftKings’ odds. They’ve been in that position just once all season, losing to Southern Utah in Week 2 with a slightly larger moneyline. They’ve covered the last two games, while Middle Tennessee has covered just twice all season. Take the Miners on the moneyline and to cover in this CUSA matchup.
Middle Tennessee’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Middle Tennessee has a 49.6% chance of beating UTEP on Saturday afternoon. Our metric gives a small home-field advantage, basically making this a coin-flip game where the Blue Raiders could get a result on the road.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Middle Tennessee in the 2024 season:
- at UTEP: 49.6%
- vs. Liberty: 24.7%
- vs. New Mexico State: 60.6%
- at FIU: 38.1%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Blue Raiders would end the year with a 3-9 record in the first year under Derek Mason. That would mark the worst overall record since the 2011 campaign that was their penultimate year in the Sun Belt.
UTEP’s Winning Probability
Conversely, UTEP has a 50.4% chance of beating Middle Tennessee in this all-CUSA showdown. A win would be vitally important for the Miners, who have been largely disappointing during Scotty Walden’s first season.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for UTEP in the 2024 college football season.
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 50.4%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 62.6%
- at Tennessee: 0.1%
- at New Mexico State: 48.8%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Miners would end the campaign with a 3-9 record. After an abysmal start to conference play, a 3-5 CUSA campaign would be a one-win improvement on the final season of the Dana Dimel era.
Prediction for Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP
This is a must-win for both teams. For Middle Tennessee, hope for bowl eligibility remains, though their remaining schedule makes it feel like a long shot. A loss would shatter any postseason dreams, but more importantly, they need this win to build momentum in their first season under a new regime.
UTEP is already out of the postseason picture, yet they’re aiming to keep progressing under first-year head coach Walden. After a win over FIU and a close game with Louisiana Tech, they’ll look to continue moving in the right direction.
So, who takes the much-needed victory on Saturday afternoon? Who has the edge, and where will the pivotal battles play out?
With both the oddsmakers and CFN’s Football Predictive Model favoring UTEP, the Miners appear to have the advantage. While Walden’s first season hasn’t delivered the offensive fireworks some expected, Jevon Jackson and Ezell Jolly form a formidable backfield duo that can set the pace, making the run game critical in this matchup.
Why is the run game so crucial? Middle Tennessee has struggled mightily to stop it, ranking last in CUSA in yards per carry allowed (5.29), with only two teams giving up more rushing touchdowns (19) in the conference—and FIU has played an extra game. Even Louisiana Tech’s inconsistent rushing attack put up over 200 yards on them.
So, UTEP has a chance to put up some exciting numbers offensively. But can their defense step up and help them secure just their second win of the year?
Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, has found success in the air, ranking second in CUSA in passing yards, though they’ve struggled to convert those yards into points, averaging just 16.9 per game.
UTEP’s defense has given up 30.3 points per game, with challenges in the secondary, yet they have the talent to keep Nicholas Vattiato under pressure all afternoon.
Prediction: Middle Tennessee 23, UTEP 27
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