Indiana vs. Michigan State Prediction: Can the Spartans Hold the Hoosiers in the Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon?

    Can the Spartans pull off a shock in the Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon? Our Indiana vs. Michigan State prediction previews the Big Ten matchup.

    Aside from several off-years, the Indiana Hoosiers and Michigan State Spartans have been meeting in the Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon since 1950. Much is at stake in the 2024 edition, with conference and playoff permutations for one of the old rivals.

    Our Indiana vs. Michigan State prediction dives into all the essential details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.

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    Indiana vs. Michigan State Betting Preview

    All Indiana vs. Michigan State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM).

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Indiana -12
    • Spread
      Indiana -7
    • Moneyline
      Indiana -278, Michigan State +225
    • Over/Under
      51 points
    • Game time
      3:30 p.m. ET
    • Location
      Spartan Stadium | East Lansing, MI
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      57 degrees, partly sunny, 7 mph winds
    • How to Watch
      Peacock

    As rivalries go, the Battle for the Old Spittoon has historically been a one-sided affair. The Spartans hold a 50-18-2 head-to-head advantage, the largest victory, the longest win streak, and won the last encounter between the two teams. Yet, this Hoosiers team is very different to most of the ones that have come before, and is an understandable favorite in Week 10.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    You could argue that they’re being undersold by the oddsmakers right now, with a five-point difference between the DraftKings and CFN FPM spread. The one-score line is likely a reflection of ongoing uncertainty around quarterback Kurtis Rourke. Nonetheless, Indiana has covered the spread for seven straight games, covering by a nation-leading average 15.7 points.

    Indiana’s Winning Probability

    According to the CFN FPM, Indiana has an 81.6% chance of victory on Saturday afternoon. Although Michigan State has historically had the better of this rivalry, the Hoosiers are a cut above the Spartans this season and should win comfortably.

    Here are the remaining win probabilities for Indiana in the 2024 college football campaign:

    • at Michigan State: 81.6%
    • vs. Michigan: 78.1%
    • at Ohio State: 29.7%
    • vs. Purdue: 95.2%

    If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Hoosiers would end the year with an 11-1 record containing just one conference loss. Even with defeat to the Ohio State Buckeyes, as projected here, there is a possibility that Indiana plays in the Big Ten Championship Game. The playoffs are very much in reach.

    Michigan State’s Winning Probability

    Conversely, Michigan State has just an 18.4% chance of winning the Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon, according to the CFN FPM. While everything about our Indiana vs. Michigan State prediction suggestions a win for the Hoosiers, our metric has underestimated the Spartans once already this year (vs. Iowa).

    Here are the remaining win probabilities for Michigan State in the 2024 college football campaign:

    • vs. Indiana: 18.4%
    • at Illinois: 25.4%
    • vs. Purdue: 75.1%
    • vs. Rutgers: 55.6%

    Here those win probabilities were to hold true, the Spartans would end the year with a 6-6 record, earning bowl eligibility in the first year under Jonathan Smith. The program hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2022.

    Prediction for Indiana vs. Michigan State

    In one season, Curt Cignetti has transformed Indiana from one of the worst teams in the country to a juggernaut with College Football Playoff aspirations. They head to East Lansing on Saturday looking to extend their unbeaten run to nine games while clawing back a game in the Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon rivalry in which they’ve trailed since 1953.

    They face a Michigan State side who raced out to a 3-0 start under new head coach Smith, but have just one win since, showcasing that the turnaround of the program might take some time. They did, however, beat a strong Iowa Hawkeyes just two weeks ago. Can they spring another surprise in Week 10? Who has the edge, and where will the crucial battles unfold?

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    Indiana being just a one-score favorite could be down to several individual components, all of which seem flawed. If home-field advantage is given as a reason to narrow the spread, consider that the Hoosiers have won the last two matchups in East Lansing, including a 24-0 win among the disrupted 2020 season.

    Perhaps there is consideration given to a Spartans defense that ranks 35th-nationally for points allowed. Michigan State has given up just 21.2 points per game in the 2024 season so far. However, that is somewhat skewed by allowing zero points to FCS Prairie View A&M, 10 points to Florida Atlantic, and 20 to Iowa. They’ve got playmakers, but the headline number requires context.

    The most significant reason for thinking that Michigan State can keep this game close would be the injury status of star quarterback Rourke, who was dominating all-comers before missing time over the last two games. However, that’s extremely short-sighted given the ground game prowess of Justice Ellison, Ty Son Lawton, Elijah Green, and backup QB Tayven Jackson.

    Jackson showed he was capable of leading the Hoosiers in the win over the Washington Huskies. Meanwhile, a defense led by CFN All-American D’Angelo Ponds, Aiden Fisher, and Mikail Kamara has been one of the most constrictive in the country. Michigan State simply can’t hang with the Hoosiers on either side of the ball, resulting in another substantial Indiana win.

    Prediction: Indiana 33, Michigan State 14

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